没有观点是观点

$Navitas Semiconductor(NVTS.US) and $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US) both edged up slightly, while the power semiconductor sector is unusually quiet. Gallium nitride and silicon carbide were once boosted by the story of NVIDIA's 800V power supply, but now that story is over, the stock prices are just hovering here, waiting for the next order to materialize. Holding them isn't painful, just boring—they can't rise much, nor can they fall deep🙃

$ON Semiconductor(ON.US) rose by over three percentage points, rebounding with the overall semiconductor market sentiment; $Vishay Intertech(VSH.US) basically didn't move; $INNOSCIENCE(02577.HK) actually fell by two percentage points. Gallium nitride (GaN) power devices inherently have high volatility, and in the small-cap stock fluctuations of the Hong Kong market, they were suppressed first—there's some internal divergence within the power and analog segment. The expectation for a recovery in automotive and industrial demand has been talked about all along, but the real inflection point still needs to wait for confirmation from downstream automakers and industrial orders. This batch just keeps swinging up and down with sentiment😪

$LUXSHARE ICT(02475.HK) has risen almost three percentage points, showing some life within the Apple supply chain; $SUNNY OPTICAL(02382.HK) also rose slightly, $Lens(06613.HK) basically didn't move, $LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) fell slightly. The hardware assembly sector hasn't been very active lately, just moving slowly with the overall market, lacking any independent catalysts. Holding these is just for steady, low-risk gains.

$Astera Labs(ALAB.US) rose by over six percentage points, and $ON Semiconductor(ON.US), $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), and $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US) also followed with gains of two to four percentage points. The AI interconnect, power, and foundry segments are all recovering together. $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) holds a more favorable and flexible position within the compute interconnect space. The other stocks are more driven by the overall semiconductor sentiment, with less momentum.

$LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) rose over seven percentage points, $LINGYI ITECH(01688.HK) and $Seagate Tech(STX.US) also rose four to five percentage points. AI PCs and storage hardware are strengthening together in this wave 😸

$LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) is leading the way with the dual story of AI PC and AI server orders. The precision manufacturing of $LINGYI ITECH(01688.HK) and the hard drives of $Seagate Tech(STX.US) are being bought up along with the demand for AI terminals and data storage. The hardware chain really has momentum these days.

$Sony(SONY.US) rose slightly by one point, while $MIDEA GROUP(00300.HK) basically didn't move. Consumer electronics and home appliances didn't see much action today, following the broader market with mild fluctuations—$Sony(SONY.US) has maintained relatively stable valuation thanks to the combination of its gaming, imaging, and semiconductor businesses; $MIDEA GROUP(00300.HK), as a leading home appliance stock in Hong Kong, has solid cash flow and is unlikely to experience major volatility. Without new catalysts, these large-cap stocks just lie low quietly, supported by their fundamentals.

$Astera Labs(ALAB.US) has risen by over six percentage points, making it even more prominent within this trend line. The demand for AI interconnect, coupled with recent target price hikes by multiple investment banks, has intensified the market sentiment. $Maxlinear(MXL.US) saw a slight increase, while $POET Tech(POET.US) in the photonics and optical module sector also edged higher. $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) remained largely flat.

As AI servers progress towards rack-level and higher bandwidth, the value contribution from the interconnect and optical components is increasing. $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) exhibits greater elasticity; the other stocks are more about being repriced along with this main theme, but their pace isn't as urgent as that of $Astera Labs(ALAB.US).

$Wolfspeed(WOLF.US), $Navitas Semiconductor(NVTS.US), and $Vishay Intertech(VSH.US) all dropped over ten percent, while $SICC(02631.HK) fell more slowly but still dropped six percent😵

The long-term logic for power semiconductors like silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) remains unchanged, with electric vehicle penetration and AI power demand still present. However, these highly volatile small-cap stocks are always the first to be dumped when the broader market shows any sign of trouble, and they fall sharply without hesitation. Those holding them can only accept this beta and wait for sentiment to recover.

Kingboard's pair today moved differently: $KINGBOARD HLDG(00148.HK) dipped slightly, while $KB LAMINATES(01888.HK) was basically flat. The wave of price increase letters for copper-clad laminates is still ongoing; laminates, as a directly benefiting segment, are relatively more resilient. The parent company's business is more diversified and carries the cyclical nature of chemicals, following the broader market's slight pullback. Demand for high-frequency, high-speed copper-clad laminates from AI servers and high-end PCBs is still on the rise, and price elasticity typically shows up first on the laminates side ☺️

$Amkor Tech(AMKR.US), $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US) both fell around seven percentage points, $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) dropped nearly six points—the entire series of semiconductor manufacturing links, including packaging and testing, metrology, and wafer foundry, were all pressed down together.

This round of selling is driven by concerns about peak demand for memory and AI, which have transmitted from the design end to the manufacturing end. $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) itself actually had good news about silicon photonics, but under sector-wide negative sentiment, even good news couldn't hold up. This is typical for the high-beta manufacturing chain when risk appetite contracts; it has little to do with fundamentals and gets cut first by capital flows.

$Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US), $TTM Tech(TTMI.US), and $AXT(AXTI.US) have basically been flat for the past two days. The lines for storage controllers, PCBs, and semiconductor substrates are all quite calm, with no obvious news drivers and low volume. It's a typical sideways consolidation state waiting for the earnings window 🙃

$LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) rose by seven to eight percent, $Lens(06613.HK) rose by six to seven percent, and $SUNNY OPTICAL(02382.HK) rose by over two percent. Apple supply chain stocks on the Hong Kong side collectively strengthened today, driven by a "hint" ahead of Apple's Q3 earnings on 6/27 – supply chain orders for the iPhone 17 Slim, scheduled for release in September, have been stockpiling since the end of May. Tariff concerns are temporarily alleviated by the dual-track approach of Indian production capacity + Vietnamese assembly.

$LENOVO GROUP(00992.HK) itself is driven by both AI PC and AI servers, with upward revisions to its AI server revenue guidance for the 2026 fiscal year; $Lens(06613.HK) and $SUNNY OPTICAL(02382.HK) are direct beneficiaries in assembly/optical components. In the short term, it depends on whether Apple can maintain its Services growth guidance of +12% at the August 1st earnings call. If it holds, the supply chain can rally further; if not, it will likely see a pullback first.

The U.S. stock semiconductor equipment/testing and packaging sector has been collectively pushed down in this wave.

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) suffered the heaviest decline, falling -11.20%, marking another sharp drop following the -11% wave on 6/22. $Texas Instruments(TXN.US) fell over eight percentage points, while $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US), $Teradyne(TER.US), $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), and $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) all fell around seven percentage points.

There are three driving factors: first, renewed market concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures; second, profit-taking in the memory sector after Micron's earnings, spreading to upstream equipment and back-end testing/packaging; third, institutional portfolio rebalancing at quarter-end hitting high-beta stocks.

From a sector perspective, valuations on the supply side of the AI computing chain remain relatively high, and a pullback is a necessary pressure release, not the end.

Micron's record-breaking quarterly report has ignited sentiment across the entire semiconductor equipment/manufacturing chain: $ASML(ASML.US), $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US), and $Wolfspeed(WOLF.US) all rose around four percentage points, while $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) and $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) also followed with gains of three to four points, showing highly consistent direction.

The driver isn't a single company's story; it's that after AI memory capital expenditure expectations were re-elevated, equipment and packaging/testing segments were repriced accordingly—lithography, power devices, and packaging/testing each occupy a link in the chain, all swept up by the same catalyst. The key going forward is to see if order fulfillment from HBM/DRAM capacity expansion can shift the momentum from sentiment repair to confirmation of actual performance.

$KINGBOARD HLDG(00148.HK) rose slightly, with the stock price barely moving. However, its copper-clad laminate (CCL) business is actually positioned on the main trend of price increases for AI server PCBs—another price hike letter has been issued for CCL, indicating genuine demand. For such an upstream material leader, the stock price is lagging behind downstream PCB companies. Is it because the market hasn't factored in the price transmission yet, or is the upstream's ability to raise prices inherently doubted? I lean towards a transmission lag; the profit elasticity on the material side usually takes one or two quarters of financial reports to be repriced. The current level seems more like it hasn't caught up yet.

$LINGYI ITECH(01688.HK), $SG MICRO(03661.HK), and $MERDEKAGOLD-DRS(06228.HK) — these several Hong Kong stock IPOs have not officially started trading yet; they are still in the pre-listing state. The first two are secondary listings from the A-share market: one makes precision components for the Apple supply chain + AI hardware, and the other makes analog chips. The remaining one is an Indonesian gold mine. Is applying for an IPO really worth participating in? I would differentiate between them — for secondary listings with an A-share pricing anchor and solid fundamentals, the first-day premium is usually more restrained. On the other hand, resource-based new stocks without a comparable anchor have greater pricing elasticity driven by sentiment, but also carry greater risks.

Hong Kong's AI hardware supply chain got hammered pretty badly today. $VGT(02476.HK) fell -12%, $FIT HON TENG(06088.HK) dropped over nine percentage points, with PCB and precision assembly—the more volatile segments—leading the decline; $KB LAMINATES(01888.HK) and $SICC(02631.HK) both fell 4-5 percentage points, $INNOSCIENCE(02577.HK) dipped slightly; only $HUA HONG GRACE(01347.HK) bucked the trend with a slight gain. The AI computing hardware chain had risen a lot recently. With this wave of Fed hawkishness + Hong Kong market risk-off, the high-beta components got hit first 😪

$HUA HONG GRACE(01347.HK) follows a foundry logic, different from the pure hardware price increase narrative, so it didn't follow the sell-off today.

$Texas Instruments(TXN.US), $ON Semiconductor(ON.US), $Vishay Intertech(VSH.US), and $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) have all risen by seven to eight percentage points, with the analog and power sectors strengthening in sync. Half of this round is due to the analog cycle's own inventory bottoming out and recovering, and half is because $STMicroelectronics NV(STM.US) previously raised its data center revenue guidance, which ignited sentiment—automotive and industrial destocking is nearing its end, coupled with power management demand from AI servers, analog chips are climbing out of a very difficult phase. All four stocks are moving in the same direction with similar magnitude, indicating a recovery in the sector's beta, not a story specific to any single company.

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) and $Ondas(ONDS.US) both dropped more than five percentage points. One is in the computing power interconnect line, and the other is tied to robotics and telecommunications. They were originally unrelated, but today they were both sold off together 😪

It seems more like high-beta small-cap stocks being suppressed together when the overall market sentiment tightens, not that a particular main theme had issues—those holding can only grit their teeth and wait for the sentiment to ease.

$Formfactor(FORM.US) rose +12%, as its test probe cards are benefiting from the demand for advanced packaging; $TTM Tech(TTMI.US) and $Rambus(RMBS.US) also gained five to nine points. All small and mid-cap stocks in the US semiconductor supply chain are following the rally. On the Hong Kong side, $DELTON(01989.HK) dipped slightly instead, while $EFUND A SEMICON ETF(03486.HK) only edged up slightly.

The US stock supply chain is rallying like this, but Hong Kong's PCB and Asia semiconductor basket aren't following. Conclusion first: A catch-up rally is highly likely, but the magnitude will be discounted — Hong Kong semiconductor stocks have consistently thinner capital support, and their follow-up rallies are always a weaker version. Or perhaps, this time we won't even get the weaker version?

$CCSC Tech(CCTG.US) down 50% in a single day, $Youlife(YOUL.US) down 48%, $Core AI(CHAI.US) also dropped over 20%, and $LUNG FUNG GROUP(02290.HK) followed with a 7% drop — the small-cap meme stocks that were surging in rotation recently have collectively receded 😵

There's no logic when they go up, and no logic is needed when they go down. With such small float, the big money itself becomes the market. Not holding these stocks in my account makes me happier than seeing any positive news 🙏

$Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) fell five or six points, $SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS AB(SIVEF.US) fell even harder—both ADRs of specialty processes got hit together. RF and photonic chips are just peripheral beneficiaries of the AI optical module narrative, and the peripherals get tossed first when sentiment recedes. 😔

$KINGBOARD HLDG(00148.HK) surged directly by +25%. The issuance of the copper-clad laminate price increase letter, combined with the global tight supply of resin, instantly ignited the price hike logic of the laminate line 💪

$TTM Tech(TTMI.US) also rose by over six percentage points. US-listed PCB stocks are following the same price increase theme, just with less exaggerated elasticity compared to Hong Kong small-cap stocks. When upstream materials like copper foil and resin tighten up, it's these material segments that see the first reaction in pricing.

Huaxida fell more than ten points, and Yunyinggu also fell six or seven points—one makes set-top boxes and smart terminals, the other makes display driver chips. Both are small-cap hardware stocks in Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks, and they were both dumped together. Yunyinggu is still a recent IPO with loose shareholding. This kind of trend, where there's no clear negative news but a whole batch of stocks drops sharply, is it due to problems in the industry fundamentals, or are small-cap stocks with poor liquidity being casually sold off by funds? It seems more like the latter. Small-cap hardware stocks lacking institutional support are the first to be thrown out when the broader market fluctuates.

Kingboard Holdings rose by six to seven points, and Dongyue Group also rose by five to six points. The chemical materials sector performed strongly against the market trend today; however, Tuopu Numerical Control fell by over two points. Copper-clad laminates and fluorine chemical products are rising, while machine tool equipment is falling—both labeled as chemical materials, yet their price movements have completely diverged. Is this round of strength in chemicals due to the price transmission from the AI computing power chain to copper-clad laminates, or is it simply a cyclical stock rebound? It looks more like the former—Kingboard issued another price increase letter, and the demand for high-end copper-clad laminates from AI servers is real. General-purpose machine tools like Tuopu lack the same demand pull, so naturally, they've been left behind.