特大肠粉

$Teradyne(TER.US) rose over three percentage points, $KIOXIA HOLDINGS CORPORATION UNSPON ADR EACH REP 0.1 COM(KXIAY.US) rose nearly five percentage points. Both the test equipment and storage sectors are moving up with the broader semiconductor market. This storage rebound is driven by a cyclical recovery fueled by HBM and AI demand. Major NAND manufacturers like $KIOXIA HOLDINGS CORPORATION UNSPON ADR EACH REP 0.1 COM(KXIAY.US) have high elasticity. $Teradyne(TER.US)'s test equipment orders follow chip shipments, benefiting in the back-end as AI chip volumes ramp up. In this semiconductor recovery, back-end testing and storage are in a pro-cyclical position; just follow the trend 😸

$Intuit(INTU.US) rose five points, leading the gains in enterprise software; $Snowflake(SNOW.US) rose nearly three points, as demand for data cloud persists. $UiPath(PATH.US), $IBM(IBM.US) edged up slightly, while $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) was basically flat. While U.S. stocks were selling off hardware/semiconductor stocks, this batch of software stocks held up relatively better. Capital is shifting from high-volatility computing hardware to software with more stable cash flow, a switch that was quite evident today 😸

Copper prices fell to a two-week low, but $CMOC(03993.HK) and $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) both edged up slightly; $Alcoa(AA.US) moved sideways, and $Albemarle(ALB.US) dipped slightly — industrial metal stocks and commodities are in a tug-of-war 🤔

Copper prices are signaling weak demand, while the stock side is betting on the volume and price realization during the mining companies' earnings season. One side has to be wrong.

The lithium sector is even weaker, with $Albemarle(ALB.US) still stuck in the mire of lithium price bottoming. Historically, the divergence window between commodities and mining stocks has mostly ended with the mining stocks turning back — will this time be an exception? Unless China's credit data this week delivers a surprise.

$SharonAI(SHAZ.US) rose five points, while $FS.COM(03355.HK) fell over three points in the Hong Kong market. Both are tied to the themes of AI computing power and cloud. $SharonAI(SHAZ.US) surged with the sentiment around computing infrastructure, but the Hong Kong stock is falling. $SharonAI(SHAZ.US) is a typical high-volatility small-cap stock, quick to rebound and quick to give back gains. $FS.COM(03355.HK) is moving more with the overall pressure on Hong Kong's hardware sector. Both carry the AI computing power label but are moving in opposite directions. Is the AI computing narrative stronger in the US market, or is the Hong Kong batch simply unable to catch this wave of sentiment? It looks more like the latter. What Hong Kong's AI hardware sector lacks is capital, not a story.

$CIG(06166.HK) rose +16%, with optical modules following the progress of 1.6T batch delivery and 3.2T sampling. The prosperity of AI optical interconnect is still on the rise.

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) and $Astera Labs(ALAB.US) both rose two to five points, with active electrical cables being bought along with the interconnect demand of AI clusters. Optical modules and AEC directly benefit from the bandwidth upgrade segment in computing power expansion. $CIG(06166.HK) has greater elasticity and is more influenced by market sentiment.

$Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) rose six points, directly benefiting from higher oil prices, plus selling chemical assets to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.8 billion and reducing debt from a peak of $40 billion to $15 billion, fundamentals have been improving; but as another hard asset for inflation hedging, $iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) dipped slightly, $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) fell three points, gold and silver actually softened today.

Both are commodities, oil is rising while precious metals are falling—is it capital rotating within commodities, favoring cyclical energy over safe-haven gold/silver under a soft-landing expectation, or just a one-day dislocation? More likely the former: oil prices holding at highs combined with a steepening curve inherently benefits cyclical commodities like energy; without safe-haven buying, gold and silver are prone to pullbacks.

Gold and silver ETFs generally saw small gains today, with $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) rising by the upper single digits, while $Pro Ultr GLD(UGL.US), $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), and $Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US) all edged higher.

The driver is clear: weak non-farm payrolls, a faster decline in short-term Treasury yields compared to long-term yields, the US Dollar Index falling below 101, and both real interest rates and the dollar moving down, reducing the holding cost of precious metals. Interest rate cut expectations are the main engine for this wave of precious metals. As long as weak employment and dovish repricing persist, the relative attractiveness of gold and silver can be maintained. The real risk is if this expectation is reversed.

$Newmont(NEM.US) rose four points following gold prices, with the leveraged end being even more aggressive—$Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US) surged over ten percent in a day, $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) rose about five points, and $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) also gained two to three points.

This wave of precious metals is moving alongside a weak dollar and low volatility: over the past week, the dollar index has declined, VIX has been suppressed to low levels, gold has accumulated a three percent gain, and silver has risen over six points. The decline in real interest rates has given gold and silver room for repricing.

As long as the dollar doesn't reverse course and CPI doesn't reignite rate hike expectations, the reflation trade can continue; but if the next inflation data comes in hot, a dollar rebound would directly reverse this wave.

$GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), $Celestica(CLS.US) fell 7 to 10 points, $TTM Tech(TTMI.US), $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US), $Vnet(VNET.US), $SharonAI(SHAZ.US) fell even harder, generally between -10% and -14%, with the entire AI hardware and data center chain being sold off together.

It's the same logic as the semiconductor wave—a collective pullback after AI optimism pushed valuations higher, with the entire chain from foundry, PCB, server OEM to IDC colocation all declining. $Vnet(VNET.US) was compounded by profit-taking from the previous data center hype, while small-cap AI infrastructure stocks like $SharonAI(SHAZ.US), with higher beta, fell even more sharply. Where the bottom of this correction lies still depends on whether the growth rate of AI capital expenditure will actually slow down.

$Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US) fell nearly four points, and $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) followed with a drop of over two points. Copper prices are waiting for the U.S. Commerce Department's Section 232 tariff report. Uncertainty is weighing down, putting pressure on both copper and copper mining stocks. There's an anomaly here: if Section 232 leans towards imposing tariffs on imported refined copper, domestic U.S. copper should actually benefit. So why are copper mining stocks falling first? It appears the market is initially discounting based on 'uncertainty.' Only after tariffs are actually imposed and the supply landscape becomes clear will pricing shift back towards the beneficiaries. The initial selling is about risk, not the final outcome.

$iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) barely moved, $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) rose slightly. Precious metals have been pulled between the approaching interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven sentiment over the past two days, with neither direction gaining absolute dominance.

Whether the gold-silver ratio has widened or narrowed recently might indicate more about whether capital is betting on inflation or safe-haven than the gold price itself. Which of these two will break out of the consolidation range first? I guess it's silver, as the industrial demand narrative has had more marginal momentum recently than gold's pure safe-haven story.

$GX CN SEMICON(03191.HK) rose two points, $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) rose a bit more than a point, $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) was flat and didn't move, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX.US) fell a bit more than a point, $EFUND GOLD MI ETF(02824.HK) fell more than two points. These few sector ETFs diverged into several lines today — $GX CN SEMICON(03191.HK) and $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) were rising, corresponding to A-share / Hong Kong stock AI + internet valuation repair; copper and gold miners were falling, corresponding to a retreat in sentiment premiums for commodity miners. The fund flows of the five ETFs today expressed a "long tech / short resources" sector rebalancing, completely consistent with VIX falling to 17 + the soft landing narrative.

Several liquidity easing themes are playing out simultaneously today: $iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) and $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) both rose a little over one percent, $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) moved more strongly, gaining almost two percent; $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) barely moved.

The drivers are the interest rate cut already being implemented + the US dollar index reaching the 99.5 level + the return of risk appetite after US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased. Both precious metals and long-term bonds being pushed up reflects not a single-asset logic, but the main theme of "liquidity conditions + real interest rate decline" is still in play.

The elasticity of silver outperforming gold relative to gold typically appears in the middle to later stages of historical interest rate cut cycles. Duration assets have already priced in part of the rate cut expectations; subsequent moves will depend on the wording of the Fed's statement.

$Vertiv(VRT.US) rose slightly, with data center cooling and power following the steady demand from AI computing power; $Cisco(CSCO.US) and $Snowflake(SNOW.US) were basically flat; $KINGSOFT CLOUD(03896.HK) fell around five percentage points, with the cloud services sector of Chinese concept stocks on the Hong Kong market clearly weaker.

Both labeled with cloud and computing power, the U.S. stock computing infrastructure side has solid demand support, while Hong Kong-listed cloud services are weighed down by concerns over the liquidity of Chinese concept stocks and profit realization—is it a divergence in fundamentals, or simply a difference in capital flows between the two markets? The latter seems more dominant; the weakness of $KINGSOFT CLOUD(03896.HK) is more about the overall discount of Chinese concept stocks in Hong Kong, not entirely a business issue.

$Nebius(NBIS.US) fell five to six points, $Coreweave(CRWV.US) and $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) also followed with a drop of three to five points. The AI data center batch is experiencing an overall pullback amid doubts about capex returns. It's important to distinguish here: it's not that a particular company had an earnings bomb, but that the capex cycle is transitioning from an acceleration phase to a steady verification phase—cloud and computing power leasing bear the pressure first, followed by the hardware side, which is the standard rhythm. $Nebius(NBIS.US) just came down from its historical high of the past two days, so a larger pullback is normal. Before the Q2 earnings report, the realization of computing power revenue is the key focus.

A few broad-based/commodity ETFs sketch out the current capital flow map: $Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X(YINN.US) fell five points, with the China side weakening; $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) dropped similarly, with precious metals pressured by a strong dollar; $XI2CSOPSMSN(07347.HK) plunged -16% in a day, while the South Korea side actually rebounded. On the bond side, $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) and $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US) barely moved—a typical risk-off day, yet money didn't really flow into long-term bonds, instead being siphoned away more by the surging dollar. $EFUND HKEX TECH 100 ETF(03456.HK) had almost no turnover all day, lying flat.

The US Dollar Index is being suppressed above 100.8, and the Fed's higher-for-longer tone hasn't loosened. Today, both non-ferrous metals and precious metals were pushed down together.

$ZIJIN MINING(02899.HK) fell over six percentage points, $CHINAHONGQIAO(01378.HK) fell three to four percentage points. The copper sector directly felt the pressure from the strong dollar. On the gold side, $EFUND GOLD MI ETF(02824.HK) and $Microsectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU.US) both fell several percentage points, while $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) dipped slightly.

It's worth noting that gold's safe-haven attribute didn't work today—there were more disturbances in the Middle East, so gold should have seen buying interest. However, the pressure from the dollar and real interest rates was stronger, causing mining companies to give back gains along with the gold price. As long as the dollar doesn't turn around, the rebounds in non-ferrous and gold mining stocks will be fragile.

$KLA(KLAC.US) rose by eight or nine points, which is quite eye-catching. $Teradyne(TER.US) rose by seven points, while $Lam Research(LRCX.US) and $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) saw slight gains. The AI storage supercycle is driving up capex, and the equipment sector is the first to benefit.

Micron's HBM and DRAM are sold out, with contract prices nearly doubling year-on-year. Downstream expansion is leading to a queue of orders for equipment like inspection, testing, and etching. This leadership from the equipment side isn't just sentiment; it's the real transmission of the capex cycle. Before Micron's earnings on the 24th, this sector is still worth watching.

$EFUND GOLD MI ETF(02824.HK) rose eight points, $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) rose over three points, $Pro Ultr Silver(AGQ.US) edged up slightly, while $iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US) and $Pro Ultr GLD(UGL.US) were basically flat.

Gold prices were almost flat that day, but mining companies rose eight points. This is the operating leverage mining companies have on gold prices—when gold prices are stuck at high levels, mining costs are fixed, and the profit elasticity per ounce is amplified. Stock prices are much more sensitive than the metal itself. The logic for copper is different. Against the backdrop of a soft landing, copper rose and the dollar weakened. The rise in $Global X Copper Miners(COPX.US) is due to expectations of industrial demand, not safe-haven buying.

Silver, caught between the industrial and precious metal logics, followed with a slight increase. Today's divergence is clear: the gold metal side is flat, the mining side is moving, that's leverage talking; the copper side is moving, that's soft landing pricing.

$FS.COM(03355.HK) has risen nearly six points, the demand for data center interconnection has found a proxy in Hong Kong stocks;$MongoDB(MDB.US) and $GDS(GDS.US) haven't moved much😀

The market sentiment for data infrastructure is now allocated based on "how close it is to AI computing power"—optical interconnection is close, databases and colocation are one layer removed, and the gains are just that honest.

$Applied Digital(APLD.US) fell seven points. Stories about AI data center lease agreements are the first to be dumped when risk appetite shrinks; $Kingsoft Cloud(KC.US) also fell slightly, $Cisco(CSCO.US) dipped a little, and $Arista Networks(ANET.US) basically didn't move. The stratification within the computing power chain is clear: the closer to the "story," the more it falls; the closer to "cash flow," the more stable it is.

Is the capex cycle really shifting from acceleration to stability, or is it actually peaking? The answer is more likely the former—none of the major companies' capital expenditure guidance has been revised downward; it's valuations, not orders, that are falling. But "shifting to stability" also means that the mode of violent rebounds for high-elasticity targets needs to change gears.

$Vnet(VNET.US) and $GDS(GDS.US) both rose over four percentage points. On a day when tech stocks generally fell, the two Chinese concept data center stocks bucked the trend. The logic of AI cabinet demand spilling over to third-party data centers has been discussed for half a year, with 70% of wholesale orders coming from AI. Is this wave a realization of fundamentals, or a rotational catch-up rally driven by capital clustering?

It looks more like a mix of the former and the latter—the orders are real, but the single-day four-point elasticity is clearly given by liquidity. When the pullback comes, whether the baton is still there says more than the gains of these two days.

The leveraged side was very active today: $Direxion Daily MRVL Bull 2X ETF(MRVU.US), $T-Rex 2X Long Alphabet Daily Target ETF(GOOX.US), and $Tradr 2X Long NBIS Daily ETF(NEBX.US) all rose by seven to ten points, $Direxion Daily AVGO Bear 1X Shares(AVS.US) gained +12%, while the one for $GraniteShares 2x Long QCOM Daily ETF(QCML.US) fell against the trend by five points. The stories of the underlying companies are actually far apart—AI chips, cloud computing power, and internet platforms each have their own trajectory, with some rising and some falling on the same day. Yet, the leveraged side is being concentratedly bet on by capital as the same "AI semiconductor" direction.

Retail investors are unwilling to take only 1x exposure to the underlying stock; what they want is the return symmetry of amplified directional bets, even going leveraged on short positions. This kind of concentration usually gets calibrated within two weeks: either retail investors start switching themes, or the underlying fundamentals can't keep up with the expected returns overdrawn by the leveraged side. The focus is on when this concentration will recede.

Non-ferrous metals diverged into two lines today: rare earths and copper are rising, while gold and uranium are falling.

Critical Metals rose over eight percentage points, both American Rare Earths and Zijin Mining rose about five points. The narrative of rare earth supply chain security coupled with stable copper prices is attracting capital flow; Newmont Mining fell slightly, Energy Fuels fell over three points, while gold and uranium prices have paused these two days 😸. All are resource stocks; today, those tied to rising commodities are stronger.

China Hongqiao Group rose by four percentage points, JL Mag Rare-Earth slightly declined, and China Silver Group fell by ten percent. The Hong Kong stock metal sector showed a three-part divergence: "aluminum up, rare earths stable, silver down." Is this a single-stock event for silver, or is there a broader reallocation of funds among small-cap metal stocks in Hong Kong? It looks more like the latter—the relative strength of rare earths and aluminum suggests funds haven't withdrawn from the sector but are rotating within it, with the pullback in silver more akin to a clearing of positions.