According to the financial information app Zhitong Caijing, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that, according to Yongyi Consulting, the national average selling price of live pigs in May 2025 is 14.61 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 1.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.49%. The slaughter volume monitored by Yongyi in May 2025 is 4.6023 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 9.24% and a year-on-year increase of 8.37%. The Yongyi sample plans to increase the number of pigs to be sold in June by 1.02% compared to the actual sales in May. Since late May, pig companies have accelerated sales, and the emotional catalyst has led to simultaneous sales of breeding pigs, putting pressure on pig prices, which have declined both month-on-month and year-on-year. In the first half of June, pig companies continue to accelerate sales. Looking ahead, the supply pressure of live pigs is expected to be released in advance, and the supply gap will soon be transmitted. The actual supply of live pigs in June may decline month-on-month, but both near-term and long-term pig prices have support, and the pig prices in the second half of 2025 are not pessimistic.

The main points of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

Sales structure: Large pigs are being sold, with the proportion of sales increasing year-on-year and the proportion of inventory decreasing month-on-month

As of June 5, 2025, in the sales structure of live pigs in the Yongyi sample, the proportion of pigs over 150 kg is 4.94%, a week-on-week increase of 0.02 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.10 percentage points. The proportion of large pigs sold is slightly higher than the same period in 2024 but lower than the same period in 2023. From the monthly inventory structure of live pigs in the My Steel sample, the proportion of heavy pigs over 140 kg in May 2025 is down 0.03 percentage points month-on-month and flat year-on-year. The low level of frozen product inventory may support future pig prices. As of June 5, 2025, the national frozen product storage rate monitored by Yongyi is 16.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 percentage points, with frozen product inventory still at a low level.

May pig farming profits narrowed month-on-month, and the number of breeding pigs increased month-on-month

Affected by the decline in pig prices, the average profit per head for self-breeding and self-raising in the industry in May is 66.78 yuan/head (a month-on-month decrease of 3.83%), and the Yongyi sample shows a month-on-month increase of 0.92% in the number of breeding pigs in May 2025. As of June 5, 2025, the price of 15 kg piglets in large-scale farms has dropped to 583 yuan/head (a week-on-week decrease of 24 yuan/head). Piglets are still in the peak season for replenishment, and there is limited room for further price declines. The replenishment of breeding pigs in June corresponds to the off-season sales of live pigs in April 2026, and the expected increase in breeding pigs in the industry is limited month-on-month.

Enterprises: The average selling price of live pigs for listed pig companies in May decreased month-on-month, with differentiated average weights of sales

As of June 10, 2025, 12 listed pig companies have released their May sales data for live pigs. The total number of live pigs sold by listed pig companies in May is 15.9015 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 29.43%. The slaughter volumes for Muyuan, Wens, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, Tangrenshen, Jinxinnong, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in April were 777.40, 315.54, 133.39, 63.86, 50.09, 72.76, 53.70, 22.97, 48.28, 8.11, 20.77, and 23.28 thousand heads, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +32.7%, +32.6%, -2.4%, +158%, -10%, +40%, +102.6%, -9.7%, +47.7%, -14.8%, -8.7%, and +24.1% In terms of average weight at market release, the average weights of commodity pigs for WENS, ZHENGBANG TECHNOLOGY, and DBN Group in May were 114.9/134.9/127.4 kg/head, with month-on-month changes of -2.1/+2.1/+3.1 kg/head.

Regarding average sales prices, the average sales prices of the top 10 listed pig companies decreased month-on-month. The average sales prices of commodity pigs for MUYUAN, WENS, New Hope, ZHENGBANG TECHNOLOGY, Tianbang Food, DBN Group, COFCO Joycome, Tiankang Biological, KINGKEY SMART AGRI, and Shennong Group in May were 14.52, 14.68, 14.59, 14.40, 14.62, 14.39, 14.63, 14.02, 14.87, and 14.43 yuan/kg, with month-on-month changes of -0.95%, -1.61%, -0.75%, -0.28%, -1.28%, -1.71%, -1.48%, -2.09%, -2.11%, and -1.70%, respectively.

Risk Warning

Abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, uncertainties related to diseases, and the decline in breeding costs for listed companies not meeting expectations