According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that based on data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's "Global Digital Economy Development Research Report (2024)", global ICT (Information and Communication Technology) product trade is accelerating, with fluctuations in its share of total global trade showing characteristics of "more trade among major countries" and "more trade with neighboring countries." The trade relationship in ICT products between China and the United States is relatively strong, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 16.05% of China's ICT product exports to the global market, indicating broad opportunities for overseas market destinations. The U.S. tariff policy brings uncertainty to the global industrial chain division of labor, but the impact on overseas revenue in the computer sector is relatively controllable. Against the backdrop of technology security, information technology iteration and commercial market promotion are expected to benefit and accelerate.

Guotai Junan's main viewpoints are as follows:

Sector Level: Overseas revenue in the computer sector accounts for about 12%, which is not high overall

According to statistics, there are a total of 362 listed companies in the Shenwan computer industry. In recent years, the overall operating revenue of the computer sector has steadily increased from 0.89 trillion yuan in 2019 to 1.21 trillion yuan in 2023; overseas revenue has increased from 113.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 145.9 billion yuan in 2023. From 2019 to 2023, the proportion of overseas revenue in the computer sector showed a fluctuating upward trend, accounting for 11.20%, 11.96%, 10.80%, 11.49%, and 12.05% respectively. (Wind's overseas revenue statistics are based on the total revenue from Chinese Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas business as calculated or disclosed in announcements.)

Company Level: Among computer companies, 36 had overseas revenue exceeding 500 million yuan in 2023, and 41 had overseas revenue accounting for over 30%

In terms of overseas revenue amount ranking, the top 5 companies are HIKVISION, Ninestar, Dahua Technology, Digital China, and Inspur Information, with overseas revenues of 29 billion, 16.8 billion, 15.3 billion, 13 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 32%, 70%, 48%, 11%, and 14% of their total revenue. In terms of overseas revenue proportion ranking, the top 5 companies are Tongwei Co., Ltd., Allianz Ruishi, Wanxing Technology, Foxit Software, and *ST YouShu, with overseas revenues of 1 billion, 600 million, 1.4 billion, 500 million, and 400 million yuan respectively, accounting for 96%, 94%, 91%, 89%, and 88% of their total revenue.

Regional Level: "Belt and Road" and other overseas destinations still bring vast market opportunities for Chinese digital enterprises

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's "Global Digital Economy Development Research Report (2024)", global ICT (Information and Communication Technology) product trade is accelerating, with fluctuations in its share of total global trade showing characteristics of "more trade among major countries" and "more trade with neighboring countries." Guotai Junan extracted export data for ICT products classified as ICT, media, computers, business, and financial services from the UN Comtrade database. The trade relationship in ICT products between China and the United States is relatively strong. Due to the large market scale, advanced technology level, and complete digital infrastructure of major countries, they can produce and export a large number of ICT products, while also being major consumer markets for digital products, with a huge demand for high-quality and innovative digital products From the perspective of China's export of ICT products to the global market, exports to the United States account for 16.05%, indicating a broad opportunity for overseas destination markets. From a policy perspective, China's "Digital Economy Work Key Points for 2024" emphasizes the need to actively expand international cooperation in the digital economy, accelerate the development of trade digitization, promote the in-depth development of the "Digital Silk Road," and actively build a favorable international cooperation environment.

Recommended Targets

BGI JiuTian (301269.SZ), DM (688692.SH), Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), Haiguang Information (688041.SH), Cambricon (688256.SH), Ninestar (002180.SZ), Ruantong Power (301236.SZ), Newland (000997.SZ), Saiyi Information (300687.SZ), Tongxingbao (301339.SZ), Runze Technology (300442.SZ); Beneficiary targets: China Software (600536.SH), Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH), Loongson Technology (688047.SH).

Risk Warning

Changes in the international policy environment; intensified market competition; demand below expectations