According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan has released a research report stating that the food and beverage sector is entering a consumption peak season. The combination of total policy expectations and direct consumption subsidy policies supports this trend. Attention should be paid to the differentiation in the fundamentals of liquor, with optimistic expectations for the continued prosperity of leisure foods and marginal improvements in the catering supply chain. Meanwhile, WeChat's small store has officially launched a gray-scale test of the "gift-giving" function, which is expected to substantially benefit leisure foods and beauty products in the short term. It is recommended to focus on leading companies related to liquor, leisure foods, and consumer goods.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

Liquor enters a peak season with operational differentiation, returning to fundamentals.

The favorable expectations from total policies have driven liquor to complete its valuation repair. The market's subsequent focus on industry trends and individual stock performance continues to rise. As the peak season approaches, the sector has entered a performance observation window, and it is expected that the "volume-price rigidity" characteristics of liquor consumption will continue. It is anticipated that in Q1 2025, "leading companies will accumulate inventory while small and medium-sized enterprises will deplete inventory." Considering channel leverage, external demand environment, and previous high base figures, it is expected that small and medium-sized enterprises will still be in a deep adjustment phase in Q1 2025, while leading companies will continue to increase their market share. Relatively speaking, companies with high channel density and strong brand recognition will benefit more.

Gift-giving scenarios provide additional support, and the prosperity of leisure foods continues.

WeChat's small store has officially launched a gray-scale test of the "gift-giving" function. Considering the massive social traffic in the WeChat ecosystem and that the gift-giving function is launched during the consumption peak season, along with the product attributes, it is expected that leisure foods and beauty products will substantially benefit in the short term. Since Q4 2024, the category and channel dividends of leisure foods have continued, and with the support of gift-giving scenarios, the high prosperity characteristics will persist.

Catering supply chain prosperity recovery is expected, with attention to marginal improvements.

Considering the more proactive total policies and direct subsidy measures related to catering, it is expected that the catering scene will likely show marginal improvements in 2025. Taking base factors into account, we expect the beer industry to see a sequential increase in sales growth from Q4 2024 to Q3 2025. Considering inflation expectations, it is anticipated that beer prices will rise and the trend of structural upgrades will continue in 2025. With the continuous increase in the chain rate of catering and the growing goals of cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, upstream leaders in the catering supply chain, such as condiments, prepared foods, and frozen foods, are expected to have significant performance improvement space in 2025.

Investment recommendations: The peak season adds catalysts, with attention to marginal improvements.

1) Liquor enters a verification phase of prosperity, with operational differentiation; it is recommended to increase holdings: Stable operational targets include Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), Yingjia Gongjiu (603198.SH), Jinshiyuan (603369.SH), Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ), as well as elastic targets under the expectation of prosperity recovery such as Shuijingfang (600779.SH), Shede Liquor (600702.SH), Jiugui Liquor (000799.SZ), and Hong Kong stock Zhenjiu Lidu (06979);

2) The peak season for leisure foods adds catalysts, benefiting from online gift-giving, with continued prosperity; it is recommended to increase holdings: Three Squirrels (300783.SZ), Youyou Foods (603697.SH), YanKershop (002847.SZ), JINZAI FOOD (003000.SZ), Qiaqia Foods (002557.SZ), and Hong Kong stock Weilang Delicious (09985) And the beneficiaries include Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) and Haoxiangni (002582.SZ);

3) Continued Marginal Improvement in Consumer Goods

Recommendation to Increase Holdings in Condiments: Baoli Food (603170.SH), Haitian Flavoring and Food (603288.SH), Zhongju High-tech (600872.SH), Qianhe Flavoring (603027.SH), etc.;

Recommendation to Increase Holdings in Beer and Beverages: Qingdao Beer (600600.SH), Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ), Zhujiang Beer (002461.SZ), Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ), Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH), as well as Hong Kong stocks China Resources Beer (00291) and Nongfu Spring (09633);

Recommendation to Increase Holdings in Dairy Products: Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH), New Dairy (002946.SZ), and the beneficiary Hong Kong stock Mengniu Dairy (02319).

Risk Warning: Increased macroeconomic volatility, food safety, industrial policy adjustments, etc