According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that tungsten demand in 2024 will be 71,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%. Among this, tungsten consumption for hard alloys will be 41,409 tons (59%), tungsten consumption for tungsten special steel will be 10,648 tons (15%), tungsten consumption for tungsten materials will be 16,000 tons (23%), and tungsten consumption for tungsten chemicals will be 2,711 tons (4%). In June 2025, the APT operating rate recorded 74.95%, the highest level in the past five years for the same period. In addition, the Yaxia project provides market space for the tungsten industry over the next decade, coupled with the gradual improvement of advanced technical skills in large tooling equipment, tools, and mining tools in China's tungsten industry, the tungsten industry is expected to yield long-term benefits.

Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Tungsten and tungsten prices: The tungsten industry chain extends from tungsten ore exploration and selection, smelting, to deep processing of tungsten, ultimately applied in the general industrial field.

The upstream of the tungsten industry mainly focuses on the exploration and selection of black and white tungsten ores, while the midstream mainly involves the smelting of "tungsten concentrate - ammonium paratungstate (APT) - tungsten powder." The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, hard alloys, etc., while the lower-level demand subjects include machinery manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, electronic information, and other industries. As of July 23, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate was quoted at 185,000 yuan/standard ton, an increase of 29.4% compared to the beginning of the year; the price of ammonium paratungstate was quoted at 272,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.9% compared to the beginning of the year; the price of tungsten powder was quoted at 405 yuan/kg, an increase of 28.2% compared to the beginning of the year; the price of tungsten carbide powder was quoted at 395 yuan/kg, an increase of 27.0% compared to the beginning of the year. The price of waste tungsten rods was quoted at 315 yuan/kg, an increase of 43.2% compared to the beginning of the year.

Tungsten supply: The first batch of indicators for 2025 is reduced.

The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 is 63,000 tons, 61,000 tons, and 58,000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.45% for the 2025 batch indicators. The quota in Jiangxi, the main production area, has been reduced by 2,370 tons, reinforcing expectations of tight supply. China has abundant tungsten resources, with the largest tungsten reserves and tungsten production in the world. In 2006, global tungsten ore production peaked at 91,000 tons, of which China produced 79,000 tons, accounting for 87%. Since then, total control policies have gradually been implemented, leading to a downward shift in China's tungsten ore production center.

In the past decade, global tungsten ore production has remained relatively stable, fluctuating around 80,000 tons. In 2024, China's tungsten ore production is expected to be 67,000 tons, accounting for 83% of global tungsten ore production. Other major producing countries include Vietnam, Russia, Bolivia, Rwanda, and others. In 2024, the global tungsten ore reserve-to-production ratio is 57 years, while China's tungsten ore reserve-to-production ratio is 36 years. In the first half of the year, the importance of tungsten as a strategic resource has increased, with mine supply continuing to tighten, and overall market spot inventory is low, which may support prices to continue rising in the future. The total inventory of tungsten concentrate and APT factories is at a near five-year low.

Tungsten demand: The growth in demand for high-end hard alloys in the new energy vehicle and military industries opens up long-term space for the tungsten industry.

The APT operating rate is at a historical high, with increasing demand for high-end hard alloys in the new energy vehicle and military industries, indicating resilient demand that supports the prices of mid-to-high-end tungsten products. By sector, the expected growth rates for downstream hard alloys and tungsten materials (tungsten wires) are relatively strong, while tungsten special steel and tungsten chemicals show relatively flat performance. In 2024, tungsten demand is expected to be 71,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%, among which tungsten consumption for hard alloys will be 41,409 tons (59%), tungsten consumption for tungsten special steel will be 10,648 tons (15%), and tungsten consumption for tungsten materials will be 16,000 tons (23%) Tungsten chemical consumption was 2,711 tons (4%). In June 2025, the APT operating rate recorded 74.95%, the highest level in the past five years for the same period. In addition, the Yaxia project provides market space for the tungsten industry over the next decade, coupled with the gradual improvement of advanced technical skills in large-scale tooling equipment, tools, and mining tools in China's tungsten industry, which is expected to yield long-term benefits.

Tungsten Supply and Demand Balance: It is estimated that by 2025, there will be a gap of approximately 2,919 tons in China's tungsten supply and demand, and the tungsten price center is expected to continue to rise.

According to Guosen Securities' estimates, future demand growth will mainly come from the increase in photovoltaic tungsten wire production. It is expected that from 2025 to 2027, China's tungsten demand will reach 62,703/66,642/70,866 tons, with year-on-year growth of 4.9%, 6.3%, and 6.3%, respectively. On the supply side, assuming an annual increase of 2,000 tons, the raw tungsten output will be 59,785/60,815/61,846 tons, respectively. Considering the annual utilization of 12,000 tons of waste tungsten, the tungsten gap from 2025 to 2027 will be 2,919/5,826/9,020 tons, respectively.

Related Targets

Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) has a full industry chain layout, with rapid growth in photovoltaic tungsten wire; CHINATUNGSTEN HIGHTECH (000657.SZ) is a leader in hard alloys, with significant advantages in raw material supply; ZY-Tungsten (002378.SZ) has prominent resource advantages and improved profitability in deep processing; Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ) has short-term performance downturns but is actively expanding downstream business; Anyuan Coal Industry (600397.SH) may become a platform for integrating Jiangxi tungsten resources.

Risk Warning

The risk of tungsten ore supply exceeding expectations; the risk of industrial recession leading to lower-than-expected demand for hard alloys; the risk of photovoltaic tungsten wire penetration rates falling short of expectations; the risk of changes in industrial policies