Good evening, comrades. Today's Hong Kong stock market movement was truly nerve-wracking, the whole process was as thrilling as riding a roller coaster.

In the morning session, it once fell below 24,000 points. Many brothers saw the fierce decline, panicked and hastily sold their positions. Who knew that in the afternoon, a large amount of capital entered the market to bottom-fish, forcing out a long lower shadow and a big V-shaped rebound.

The core support for the market was mainland China's June export data, which far exceeded market expectations, surging 27% year-on-year. Demand for AI and chip-related orders was particularly strong, and the recovery rally for tech growth stocks has just begun.

�� Portfolio Breakdown｜Two Core AI Picks, The Confidence I Have to Hold

Today, the main force deliberately shook out weak hands. Let me explain the market situation one by one.

�� $Kingdee International(00268)$  ｜Cost 6.35

Today, it followed the broader market to pull out a beautiful long lower shadow line. Early in the session, due to a subsidiary's privacy policy notice, the market panicked and sold off in a frenzy, a pure emotional misjudgment. The fundamentals are completely fine. In the afternoon, smart money took advantage of the low price to frantically bottom-fish, quickly pulling the stock price back up. The company had previously issued a forecast, indicating a successful turnaround to profitability for the half-year report, with net profit between 40-60 million, solidifying the earnings inflection point. My cost is only 6.35. The low point created by today's sharp drop is a golden pit. After the shakeout, a recovery is inevitable sooner or later, so there's no need to panic excessively.

�� $QuantGroup(02685)$  ｜Cost 14.55

It consolidated and built a base with full turnover within the 13-14 yuan range throughout the day. Support below was continuous. The decline narrowed significantly towards the close, and selling pressure weakened noticeably. This is a small-cap, highly elastic AI stock. It previously triggered a market adjustment mechanism and surged, proving that once the trend arrives, its upward force can be quite exaggerated. The company's full-year operations are stable, with net profit up 33%. The longer it consolidates now, the stronger the upward momentum will be later. It's only a matter of time before it breaks above the 14.55 cost line.

�� Key Observations Tonight! Data Directly Affects Tomorrow's Opening

There are two major heavyweight news items around the US market opening tonight, equivalent to a mid-term exam for global markets: US CPIinflation data and the concentrated release of Q2 earnings reports from major banks like JP Morgan / Goldman Sachs, which will directly set the tone for tomorrow morning's Hong Kong market.

�� Positive Catalysts

1. CPI data meets / falls below expectations: Interest rate cut expectations will immediately heat up, US Treasury yields will fall, and both the Hang Seng TECH Index and our two AI picks will see valuation recovery;

2. Strong earnings reports from major banks: Reflects a smooth soft landing for the US economy, boosting market risk appetite and driving capital back to tech stocks;

3. Mainland China will release economic data tomorrow, expectations for policy support are heating up, and capital is likely to front-run.

�� Potential Negative Interference

1. Core inflation data is stronger than expected: The market will worry about an inflation rebound, US stocks and the Hang Seng TECH Index are prone to a sell-off after an initial rise;

2. Increased bad loans in bank earnings reports: Reflects damage to the real economy from high interest rates, with financial stocks leading the broader market lower;

3. Continued tension in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. Once the conflict escalates, it will dampen sentiment for risk assets.

💡 Today's long lower shadow line has already proven there is sufficient support at low levels, and a signal for a bull counterattack has appeared. As long as tonight's external data doesn't bring a major bombshell, tomorrow's market will continue its recovery trend. Don't easily give up the chips in your hands for the two AI picks. Hold them steadily and wait for the subsequent market trend to materialize!

I'd like to ask all comrades, did you bottom-fish during today's afternoon V-shaped reversal? Share your mindset watching the market today in the comments! 💪

$BABA-W(09988.HK) 

$MONTAGE TECH(06809.HK) 

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)