14453

This Issue's Dry Goods Share | 02331 Li Ning

This issue's genuine dry goods share | Currently quoted at 15.03

The market size continues to grow. In 2025, the total mainland sportswear and footwear market size is 432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +7.2%, far exceeding the growth rate of traditional apparel.

Guochao continues to replace international brands: Li Ning's market share is 12.8%, firmly holding second place, surpassing Adidas, and closely chasing Anta's 16.2%; Nike's market share continues to decline, the competitiveness of local brands is irreversible.

Ample room for growth: Four major incremental segments - outdoor, professional basketball, high-end Guochao, and lower-tier markets - with room for improvement in per capita sports consumption.

Multiple catalysts throughout 2026, ample stock price elasticity

Olympic year dividend: Year-round Olympic sponsorship exposure, intensive international events in the second half of the year, expanding brand traffic;

Stephen Curry season catalyst: In the new NBA season, Stephen Curry will wear Li Ning products across the board, accelerating basketball category sales in Q4;

New store formats launch and continuous release of high-end new products, driving improvement in single-store sales and gross margin;

Expectation of gradual consumption recovery: Mainland retail consumption warms up quarter by quarter, the sports sector is a pro-cyclical category, subsequent sales are expected to improve;

Institutional target prices are generally 23–26 HKD, with the current stock price having nearly 50% upside to the target.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$LI NING(02331.HK)