$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) $S&P 500(.SPX.US) $NASDAQ-100(.NDX.US) The three major indices collectively closed higher, as cooling inflation dampened expectations for interest rate hikes, with growth sectors outperforming and traditional value companies weakening:
Dow Jones: Slightly higher, IBM's plunge limited the index's gains.
S&P 500: Oscillated higher, with tech heavyweights contributing the main gains.
Nasdaq: Rose strongly, with semiconductors and AI hardware surging across the board.
Core Drivers (Three Main Themes)
- US June CPI cooled significantly, liquidity expectations turned accommodative.
June CPI fell 3.5% year-on-year (expected 3.8%), down 0.4% month-on-month (first monthly decline in six years); core CPI of 2.6% YoY also fell short of expectations. Markets significantly lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in July, with the US dollar and Treasury yields falling, and capital flowing into high-growth tech assets.
Fed official Waller's hawkish remarks, warning against easing the fight against inflation based on a single month's improvement, were outweighed by the data, leaving the accommodative trading theme uninterrupted. - Extreme performance divergence: AI hardware boom, traditional IT demand collapse.
1) Storage/computing semiconductors surged across the board (the strongest theme).
The Fed's June meeting minutes confirmed AI continues to drive data center and hardware equipment investment; Bank of America interpreted the semiconductor pullback as a healthy correction, with a rebound expected in autumn.
Individual stock moves:
SK Hynix ADR soared over 27%.
Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, AMD, Intel, Seagate all rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up over 2.5%.
Capital continues to bet on long-term demand for AI servers and high-bandwidth storage, making the computing power chain a safe haven.
2) IBM crashed, recording its largest single-day drop in 58 years (-25.21%).
The company pre-released Q2 revenue significantly below expectations, as clients slashed spending on traditional software and IT services, shifting budgets entirely to chips and AI servers.
Market interpretation: Traditional enterprise digital spending structure has completely shifted, valuations of legacy IT service providers remain under pressure, and capital continues to abandon companies outside the AI hardware theme. - Middle East geopolitical disturbances, but not altering the main theme.
Earlier escalation of Iran conflict briefly suppressed risk appetite and pushed up oil prices, but after the CPI data, geopolitical negatives were overshadowed by liquidity positives, causing only short-term volatility without sustained selling.
Chinese stock performance: Diverged and oscillated, with AI-related names stronger.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index oscillated narrowly, with clear sector fragmentation:
Internet platforms (Alibaba, Baidu, Pinduoduo): Fell then rose sharply in a V-shaped reversal; Alibaba Cloud's AI business was the main bullish logic, with Alibaba up over 11% in a single day. Consumer platforms were generally weaker, weighed down by weak domestic consumption recovery expectations.
AI hardware/autonomous driving Chinese stocks (Hesai, Pony.ai, Bilibili): Strengthened following the overseas computing power trend, becoming the core highlight among Chinese stocks.
New energy vehicle makers (Li Auto, Nio, XPeng): Rebounded slightly, but the industry's price war and profit pressure limit the sustainability of the rebound.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)