A sharp run-up in global memory-chip stocks is beginning to falter as cooling price growth raises questions over how long the sector’s explosive boom can last, even as artificial intelligence demand remains robust and Chinese producers prepare to add more supply. While data-centre spending continues to fuel appetite for high-end memory, analysts are warning that the steep price increases – which drove record profits over past quarters – signal a shift towards a late-stage industry cycle. The concern is showing up in recent institutional forecasts. In a report last week, Morgan Stanley warned that the memory cycle was set to enter its late stage in the fourth quarter, as price increases moderate and inventories build. The pullback has been broad-based, with shares of major memory firms, including Micron, SK Hynix and SanDisk, retreating from highs in recent weeks as investors reassess the durability of the run-up. That deceleration is already reflected in contract pricing: Bernstein Research noted in a report on Friday that conventional DRAM contract prices were expected to rise about 17 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous period, a sharp slowdown from the roughly 65 per cent jump quarter on quarter in the April-June period this year. Adding to supply-side pressure are expansion plans by China’s top memory producers. UBS expected ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) to nearly double its monthly DRAM capacity from around 240,000 wafer starts at the end of 2025 to 466,000 by late 2028, lifting its share of global DRAM bit supply from about 7 per cent to 10 per cent. At the same time, Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) is expanding its footprint in NAND flash. Bernstein said YMTC had sought smaller price increases than its global rivals in mobile NAND, helping it to capture market share as device makers became increasingly resistant to higher costs. This cooling remains uneven across end markets. Consumer electronics makers, particularly PC and smartphone manufacturers, are pushing back harder against further price increases, while demand from servers and AI data centres remains far more resilient. Citing TrendForce data, Citi Research projected that servers would account for 51.1 per cent of global NAND production in 2027, up from 44.2 per cent in 2026. Morgan Stanley analysts noted that “a strong AI cycle and a cyclical downturn can coexist”. Still, slower price growth does not necessarily signal an immediate end to global supply tightness. JPMorgan expected memory shortages to persist for another two years, estimating that roughly 300,000 additional monthly wafer starts of DRAM capacity and 45,000 of NAND would be needed for the market to bring supply and demand back into balance by 2028. New semiconductor fabrication plants take years to build and ramp up, while the surging production of high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators continues to consume wafer capacity. That tension is particularly relevant for CXMT. Despite the company’s ambitious expansion goals, UBS still projected the global DRAM market would remain undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028.