JPM: China's Battery Supply Chain Output Growth Expected to Accelerate MoM in Aug; CATL Remains Top Pick
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.JPMorgan reports China's battery supply chain output growth is expected to accelerate in August, with top six makers planning 8% MoM and 65% YoY growth. CATL remains the top pick, outperforming peers with estimated 70%+ YoY growth for July-August. CALB also showed strong performance with over 90% YoY growth. However, lithium carbonate prices remain under pressure due to weak supply-demand expectations and new policy uncertainties.
JPMorgan released a report stating that the latest forecasts from ZE Consulting showed that MoM momentum in China's battery supply chain is expected to remain strong. The six largest battery makers are planning Aug output growth of 8% MoM and 65% YoY, in line with typical seasonal patterns for Aug. Average output for Jul-Aug is also expected to be 13% higher than the monthly average level in 2Q26, comparable to or potentially stronger than the MoM increase seen in the same period of previous years.
The broker believed the latest production schedules indicate that battery demand fundamentals remain healthy as the industry enters the seasonally stronger production peak in Aug-Sep. CATL (03750.HK) +9.500 (+1.574%) Short selling $936.32M; Ratio 41.985% continued to outperform, with 2Q26 output estimated to have risen about 80% YoY, while Jul and Aug output are both expected to grow more than 70% YoY, ahead of the roughly 40-60% growth seen among most peers. CATL (03750.HK) +9.500 (+1.574%) Short selling $936.32M; Ratio 41.985% remains the broker's top pick in China's battery supply chain.
Among second-tier companies, the broker said CALB (03931.HK) +0.850 (+5.273%) Short selling $11.91M; Ratio 15.705% recorded the highest output growth this year, with YoY growth exceeding 90%, tracking above its 55% sales growth target.
In addition, the broker said China's lithium carbonate prices remain under pressure. As of Jul 27, spot prices were below RMB140,000 per tonne, while futures prices were around RMB147,000 per tonne, as investors focused on weaker supply-demand balance expectations for 2H26/2027, including potential new supply additions, Zimbabwe's resumption of exports since Jul, concerns over the sustainability of downstream energy storage demand growth, and uncertainties surrounding the new battery consumption tax policy announced on Jul 17. (ha/a)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-28 16:25.)
