The United States plans to impose high port entry fees on mainland China, and institutional assessments suggest that shipping companies may pass on these costs through surcharges, although the extent of this pass-through will depend on market conditions at the time. Additionally, the operating costs of mainland-made or mainland-flagged vessels will increase compared to vessels of other nationalities, thereby raising the overall freight rates on American routes, giving a competitive advantage to Evergreen (2603), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609), and Wan Hai Lines (2615).

Market rumors indicate that the U.S. intends to impose high port entry fees on vessels manufactured in mainland China or operated by mainland shipping companies, with fees potentially reaching over a million dollars. This will affect mainstream vessel types, including container shipping, bulk shipping, and car carriers, as the U.S. plans to charge up to a million dollars for mainland-flagged and mainland-made vessels docking at U.S. ports.

Institutions have stated that since the U.S. previously planned for a national shipping initiative (requiring that 10% of all goods imported from mainland China to the U.S. over the next 15 years be transported by U.S.-flagged vessels), and given that mainland China's shipbuilding industry has the largest global market share, the imposition of port fees is likely related to the U.S. plan to revitalize its shipbuilding industry.

Analysts indicate that if the port entry fee is set at $1.5 million, for example, the cost per TEU for container shipping on American routes could increase by $100 to $190. Shipping companies may pass on these costs through surcharges, but the extent of this pass-through will still depend on market conditions at the time. Furthermore, the operating costs of mainland-made or mainland-flagged vessels will increase compared to vessels of other nationalities, thereby raising the overall freight rates on American routes, giving a competitive advantage to non-mainland and non-mainland-made vessels.

Some institutions believe that charging fees to mainland-made container ships and mainland shipping operators will lead to a restructuring of the global shipping landscape, with capacity and routes adjusted based on the nationality of shipping companies and the proportion of mainland vessels. Mainland shipping companies, such as COSCO and those with a higher proportion of mainland-made vessels, will see their capacity redistributed to routes outside North America, while North American routes will be monopolized by shipping companies with a lower proportion of mainland-made vessels. If fees are only charged to mainland shipping companies, the current global commercial fleet is only 19% operated by mainland entities, so adjustments in routes should not significantly impact global freight rates.

If fees are imposed universally, given that the mainland shipbuilding industry currently holds a 70% market share, all shipping companies will have some use of mainland-made vessels, albeit to varying degrees. Therefore, after universal fees are implemented, additional costs will inevitably need to be paid and directly passed on to shippers, driving up freight rates.

The proposal to charge mainland shipping companies and mainland-made vessels will benefit shipping companies with a lower proportion of mainland-made vessels and non-mainland-flagged companies, as well as shipbuilding industries outside of mainland China. In terms of Taiwan stocks, Evergreen, Wan Hai, Yang Ming, and Taiwan Shipbuilding (2208) are expected to benefit.

However, some analysts believe that after the Lunar New Year, market freight rates will still be in a downward phase. With recent declines in freight rates expanding, the likelihood of shipping companies successfully raising rates in March has increased, but there are still many variables in the market, and whether freight rates will bottom out remains to be observed