According to Zhitong Finance APP, Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that the toy and trendy toy industry on Tmall's 618 event will experience explosive growth in 2025, with the transaction volume and growth rate of domestic IP derivatives ("Guo Gu") fully surpassing those of Japanese IP derivatives ("Ri Gu"). In addition, there are expectations for more films in the summer of 2025 to achieve breakthrough results in IP derivative development, injecting new vitality into the Chinese film market and IP derivative development. The firm is optimistic about the investment value of the IP industry and looks forward to major IPs and their commercialization. Three directions are worth paying attention to: (1) IP2C trendy toy leaders; (2) IP2B2C model IP operators with quality IP and B-end customer resources; (3) content producers with strong content creation capabilities.

Zhongtai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

Strong growth of Tmall's 618 toy and trendy toy, "Guo Gu" popularity surpasses "Ri Gu"

According to Wan Shidai, during Tmall's 618, Taotian launched over 200,000 peripheral products from about 2,000 IPs, with the new product from Die Zhi Xin Yi breaking 100 million on the first day, becoming the first store in this year's toy and trendy toy industry to surpass 100 million. Many peripheral stores, such as miHoYo flagship store, Genshin Impact flagship store, Arknights flagship store, and the Qian Yi specialty store of "Travelers in Time and Space," have seen double-digit or even triple-digit growth. As of June 12, six merchants in the Taotian toy and trendy toy industry have surpassed 100 million, nearly a hundred merchants have surpassed 10 million, 16 single products have surpassed 10 million, nearly 800 single products have surpassed 1 million, and over 2,400 Taotian trendy toy stores have achieved triple-digit year-on-year growth, with the number of merchants surpassing 100 million and the number of single products surpassing 10 million already exceeding the entire cycle of last year's 618.

In addition, platform data shows that "Guo Gu" far exceeds "Ri Gu" in both transaction volume and growth rate. The Jiyi Kawa flagship store followed the promotional rhythm to launch new products, such as the Halloween series launched simultaneously with Japan and the popular spicy curry series in Hong Kong, which climbed to the Top 5 in the Tmall trendy toy industry transaction list during the pre-sale phase. In the first phase of 618, game e-sports peripherals grew by over 80% compared to last year. As of June 8, the "Game Valley" alone generated over 10 single products with transaction volumes in the tens of millions, with the highest single link generating nearly 70 million in transactions. This year's 618 saw a three-digit year-on-year growth in overseas orders for valley-type products, the vast majority of which were transactions of domestic IP derivatives. Moreover, the popularity of valleys has also spread from game peripherals and anime peripherals to film and celebrities. The "Zhou Keke flagship store," which features original OC images by celebrities, achieved a transaction volume of 10 million on the day of its launch, becoming the first celebrity peripheral product to break 10 million this year during 618. "Eternal Night Galaxy" saw a peak daily search of over 300,000 people, with transactions booming, while with the popularity of "Tibetan Sea Chronicle," related search terms on Taobao reached a maximum of 200,000 times in a single day, giving rise to multiple million-level popular products.

"Guo Gu" is on the rise, and the development of the IP post-link can be looked at in the long term

According to the "2024 Global Licensing Market Report," in 2023, the retail sales of licensed products and services in China reached USD 13.77 billion, still lower than that of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. From the perspective of consumer inclination, according to the "2023 Global Licensing Industry Research," in 2022, the per capita retail consumption of IP products in the United States, Japan, and China was RMB 3,077, RMB 581, and RMB 51, respectively, accounting for 7.8‰, 6.1‰, and 1.4% of per capita disposable income. The per capita retail consumption of IP products in China accounts for less than 1/4 of that in Japan and less than 1/5 of that in the United States From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, the revenue share of China's IP represented by derivative product sales accounts for about 10%, which is lower than the levels in Japan and the United States (~70%).

Over 60 domestic and foreign films scheduled for the summer season, IP derivatives expected to receive new catalysts

As the longest movie release period of the year, the summer season attracts significant attention from the film industry and audiences nationwide. So far, more than 60 domestic and foreign films have been scheduled for the summer of 2025, including "Earth Special Agent," "Detective Conan: The Phantom of the One-Eyed," "Crayon Shin-chan: The Battle of the Adult Kingdom," "Strange Tales from a Chinese Studio: Lanruo Temple," "The Legend of Hei 2," and "The Little Monsters of Langlang Mountain," among several domestic and foreign animated films. Considering that animated films typically have richer image resources, diverse character assets, and a broad audience base, they have greater potential in IP derivative product development. We look forward to more films in the summer of 2025 achieving breakthrough results in IP derivative product development, injecting new vitality into the Chinese film market and IP derivative product development.

Optimistic about the investment value of the IP industry, looking forward to major IPs and their commercialization

Three directions worth noting: (1) IP2C trendy toy leaders, recommend POP MART, and pay attention to Superstar Legend, Shifeng Culture, and the upcoming listings of Card Game and 52TOYS; (2) IP operators with quality IP and B-end customer resources in the IP2B2C model, focus on Alibaba Pictures, Yuanlong Yatu, and Lingbang Group; (3) Content creators with strong content creation capabilities, focus on Shanghai Film, Zhongwen Online, Yuewen Group, Light Media, Alpha Group, Rongxin Culture, Tom, and Zhangyue Technology.

Risk Warning: Risks of IP lifecycle sustainability, global macroeconomic volatility risks, policy and compliance risks, calculation deviation, and untimely updates of research report information