According to Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that Figure has launched its mass production automation factory BotQ, with the first production line having an annual capacity of 12,000 humanoid robots. The factory production process involves its self-developed model Helix, officially starting the countdown to commercialization. The humanoid robot industry is entering the "1-10 moment," and the supply chain is expected to experience a wave of intensive capital expenditure, with "shovel stocks" as core equipment and key consumables benefiting first. Relevant core equipment and consumables include motors, reducers, lead screws, and bearings. The firm focuses on core equipment manufacturers with high elasticity and excellent competitive landscape, recommending beneficiaries in dynamic balancing equipment, winding equipment, machining tools, grinding machines, and cutting tools.

Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

The first year of humanoid robot mass production, large-scale capital expenditure in the supply chain is about to begin

Figure has launched its mass production automation factory BotQ, with the first production line having an annual capacity of 12,000 humanoid robots. The factory production process involves its self-developed model Helix, officially starting the countdown to commercialization. Leading manufacturers like Tesla have set clear targets of producing around 10,000 units by 2025, with a subsequent tenfold expansion over the next two years. The domestic supply chain is accelerating capacity preparations, with companies like Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and New Jian Transmission disclosing plans for robot production expansion, with a cumulative planned investment of over 10 billion to expand core component capacity. According to GGII statistics, the financing scale for domestic embodied intelligent robots in January-February 2025 has approached the total amount for the entire year of 2024. The firm believes that the humanoid robot industry is entering the "1-10 moment," and the supply chain is expected to experience a wave of intensive capital expenditure, with "shovel stocks" as core equipment and key consumables benefiting first. "Those who strike gold first sell shovels," seeking the "golden shovel" in a large track.

Motors

Including frameless torque motors and micro motors (hollow cup, brushless DC, etc.), the estimated usage of motors for a single humanoid robot is 62 units, and the mass production of one million humanoid robots is expected to create a new market scale of 25.4 billion yuan. The barriers to motor manufacturing lie in winding and dynamic balancing detection, which directly determine motor power density, stability, and yield. The corresponding core equipment includes fully automatic winding machines and balancing machines. Based on the mass production of one million robots, the firm estimates that the market demand for motor automatic winding machines and balancing machines will reach 2.71 billion and 930 million yuan, respectively. Beneficiaries: JZABM (one of the few domestic suppliers with full series core equipment capabilities for motors); Tianzhong Precision Machinery (winding machines).

Reducers

Including harmonic reducers and planetary reducers, the estimated usage of reducers for a single humanoid robot is 38 units (including micro gearboxes, etc.), and the mass production of one million robots is expected to create a new market scale of 9.6 billion yuan. The core processes of reducers lie in gear processing precision (determining torque transmission efficiency) and dynamic balancing stability (affecting precision and lifespan), with core equipment being gear processing machine tools (gear hobbing machines, gear shaping machines, etc.) and balancing detection equipment. Based on the mass production of one million robots, the firm estimates that the market demand for reducer gear processing machine tools and balancing machines will reach 1.2 billion and 670 million yuan, respectively. (1) Recommended beneficiaries for gear processing machine tools: Qin Chuan Machine Tool; beneficiaries: Zhejiang Haideman; (2) Beneficiaries for dynamic balancing machines: JZABM Screw Rod

The humanoid robot reducer mainly includes planetary roller screw rods and micro screw rods, with an estimated usage of 44 per robot (expected to continue increasing). The mass production of one million robots is expected to add a market scale of 23 billion yuan. The core processes of screw rods are thread processing and precision detection and straightening, which determine precision and transmission efficiency. The core equipment includes thread grinding machines and automatic straightening machines. With the mass production of one million robots, the market demand for screw rod thread grinding machines and automatic straightening machines is estimated to reach 2.67 billion and 730 million yuan, respectively. (1) Recommended targets for thread grinding machines: QinChuan Machine Tool; benefiting targets: RiFa Precision Machinery, HuaChen Equipment; (2) Benefiting targets for screw rod straightening machines: JZABM.

Bearings

The estimated usage per robot is 70-90, and the mass production of one million robots is expected to add a market scale of 1.54 billion yuan. The grinding and testing stages of bearings directly affect product performance, with core equipment being grinding machines and dynamic balancing machines. With the mass production of one million robots, the market demand for bearing grinding machines and testing equipment is estimated to reach 200 million and 90 million yuan, respectively. (1) Recommended targets for grinding machines: QinChuan Machine Tool; benefiting targets: RiFa Precision Machinery, HuaChen Equipment; (2) Benefiting targets for testing equipment: JZABM.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic fluctuation risks; robot mass production not meeting expectations; supply chain development not meeting expectations