According to Zhitong Finance APP, Huaxi Securities released a research report stating that the year of mass production for humanoid robots has begun, with domestic supply chain capital expenditure accelerating; domestic manufacturers have already accumulated good technology and are speeding up their catch-up. Tesla (TSLA.US) has raised its mass production guidance, with companies like Zhiyuan and Zhongqing planning for thousands of units, marking the start of the mass production year for humanoid robots, and domestic supply chain manufacturers are accelerating capacity reserves. As a core "shovel stock," screw processing equipment is expected to fully benefit from the downstream screw expansion wave and accelerated domestic substitution.

Beneficiaries of grinding machines include Hiecise (300809.SZ), Qinchuan (000837.SZ), and Rifeng Precision Machinery (002520.SZ), while beneficiaries of lathes include Zhejiang Haideman (688577.SH). Other beneficiaries include Yuhuan CNC (002903.SZ) and World (688028.SH), among others.

The main points of Huaxi Securities are as follows:

Screw Process: Thread processing is the main difficulty, with continuous iteration of cost-reduction new solutions for grinding/turning/milling/rolling

Planetary roller screws consist of screw shafts, rollers, and nuts, with the process difficulties focusing on multi-threaded rolling paths, roller spline tooth structures, and internal threads of nuts, with increasing processing difficulty. In addition, the heat treatment stage poses an invisible barrier to screw processing, with challenges in compensating for thread deformation caused by quenching. In light of comprehensive cost reduction requirements and mass production efficiency, screw manufacturers are exploring combinations of grinding/turning/milling/rolling solutions: 1) The core is to reduce the grinding amount in the semi-finishing stage: "turning instead of grinding" is reliable and efficient; "swirling milling" balances efficiency and precision, but at a high cost; "rolling" is most suitable for mass production but struggles to maintain precision, each with its pros and cons, requiring continuous iteration; 2) Grinding remains an indispensable key process: In scenarios with extremely high precision requirements, such as internal threads and external cylindrical grinding, precision grinding is always an essential part, especially for high-end screw processing.

Processing Equipment: Grinding machines are the core equipment for expansion, focusing on turning/milling instead of grinding, and rolling as incremental links

Reviewing Qinchuan's screw expansion project, grinding machines account for 46% of the equipment investment, with a unit price exceeding ten million per machine, indicating that grinding machines are the main capital expenditure focus for screw expansion; high-end lathes and swirling milling machines benefit from new cost-reduction routes, becoming incremental links on the equipment side. 1) Grinding machines: One of the most difficult machine tools, ultra-high-speed + high-precision grinding constitutes a high technical barrier, leading to a continued high reliance on imported grinding machines in China, primarily from European, American, and Japanese manufacturers. According to the bank's estimates, the domestic grinding machine market space is about 8 billion yuan, with a localization rate of less than 30%; 2) Humanoid robots open up demand space: With a high certainty for screw solutions, assuming a mass production of one million units, each unit uses 14 planetary roller screws and 30 micro screws, with neutral assumptions requiring 45/15 minutes of grinding time (considering only internal and external thread precision grinding), the corresponding grinding machine demand would be 4.4/2.8 billion yuan, totaling a new market scale of 8.7 billion yuan.

Screw manufacturers' capital expenditure accelerates, high-quality "shovel stocks" benefit first

1. Domestic manufacturers have already accumulated good technology and are accelerating their catch-up. Taking grinding machines as an example, from both patent and actual processing effect perspectives, they have achieved benchmarks against overseas standards. Standard grinding machine functions overflow, and screw manufacturers choose customized development, coupled with ample capacity supply, giving domestic equipment manufacturers a clear comprehensive advantage, and industrialization is expected to accelerate

2. Tesla raises production guidance, with companies like Zhiyuan and Zhongqing planning for thousands of units. The first year of mass production for humanoid robots has begun, and domestic supply chain manufacturers are accelerating capacity reserves. T1 assembler Top Group and Sanhua have disclosed plans for robot capacity expansion, with a total investment of nearly 10 billion yuan; screw rod manufacturers Xinjian Transmission, Wuzhou Xinchun, and Hengli Hydraulic have all started to accelerate capital expenditures to prepare for large-scale production.

3. Core "shovel stocks" benefit significantly: grinding machines are the largest incremental segment, and domestic manufacturers are actively laying out high-end grinding machines, including not only established thread grinding companies (Qinchuan) but also players like Hiecise, Rifeng Precision Machinery, and Yuhuan CNC, which have ultra-high precision grinding experience in other fields. Due to the commonality of underlying technologies, the verification progress of related new products is relatively good. The new cost-reduction route for screw rods brings certain demand for high-end lathes and vortex milling machines, with Zhejiang Haideman and Hanjing Machine Tool having already laid out in this field, and demand is expected to accelerate industrialization. In addition, PCBN tools, as key consumables, also benefit.

Risk Warning: The expansion progress of screw rods may fall short of expectations, the R&D of new products by related companies may not meet expectations, and market competition may intensify