Due to the fertilizer shortage and soaring fuel costs triggered by the Iran war, farmers in many Asian countries are reducing their planting areas. Additionally, the El Niño phenomenon may further compress yields, leading to a potential decline in global rice supply.

According to a Reuters report, rice is the most consumed staple crop globally and is crucial for world food security. Even a slight disruption in supply could trigger a chain reaction in various countries, driving up prices and increasing the burden on household budgets, especially in price-sensitive regions like Asia and Africa. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations predicted in April that rice production would increase by 2% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, reaching a historical high.

However, industry insiders point out that the impact of the Iran war has affected major exporting countries like Thailand and Vietnam, as well as import-dependent countries like the Philippines and Indonesia. Under the Middle Eastern conflict, the critical shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, is nearly closed, causing disruptions in fuel and fertilizer supplies; the Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets.

Moreover, due to the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to bring hotter and drier weather to Southeast Asia in the second half of this year, the region's agriculture system, primarily composed of smallholder farmers, is facing increasing pressure.

Maximo Torero Cullen, chief economist of the FAO, stated, "Farmers in some countries have started planting rice, but due to rising costs, they are reducing the agricultural resources they use. We expect the global food supply situation to become even tighter in the second half of this year and early next year."

In 2008, major rice-exporting countries implemented measures to restrict or ban rice exports to curb domestic inflation and protect internal demand, causing rice prices to double in a short period to about $1,000 per ton, leading to "food riots" in multiple countries. The supply tightness from 2022 to 2023, coupled with India's renewed restrictions on certain rice exports, has also driven up rice prices and triggered panic buying