CICC: It is expected that the wholesale price of upstream natural gas in China will stabilize in 2025, and the competitive landscape of the industry is expected to further improve
CICC stated that it expects China's apparent natural gas consumption growth rate to be about 6.2% in 2025. This is mainly based on: industrial fuel gas demand being suppressed by gas prices and competition from alternative energy sources, with demand growth slowing from 24E YoY +5% to 25E YoY +4%; transportation gas demand declining from 24E YoY +32% to 25E YoY +20% due to a high base in 2024; and the scale of storage capacity replenishment remaining relatively stable compared to 2024. It is expected that China's upstream natural gas wholesale prices will stabilize in 2025; at the same time, the trend of deepening downstream market-oriented reforms and tightening industry safety supervision will not change, and the government may continue to promote the large-scale integration of urban pipeline gas to improve the competitive landscape of the industry
