JPM: 2Q25 Losses at Chinese Airlines Worst in Three Years; Industry Outlook Cautious
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.JPMorgan reports that China's three major airlines face their worst quarterly losses in three years for Q2 2025, driven by high oil prices, weak base fares, and subdued summer travel demand. Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern are expected to post significant net losses, with H1 2025 average net loss at RMB2.7 billion. JPM maintains Underweight ratings on China Eastern and China Southern, and Neutral ratings on Air China and Spring Airlines, citing a cautious industry outlook.
JPM released a report stating that the three major Chinese airlines have issued profit warnings for 1H25 results, indicating that net losses in 2Q25 will be the worst in the past three years. After recording net profits in 1Q25, the three carriers are expected to post an average net loss of RMB4.3 billion in 2Q25, dragged down by high oil prices and weak base fares, marking the largest quarterly loss since 2023. Summer travel demand also fell short of expectations, with passenger traffic and flight volumes both declining YoY, while base net fares remained under pressure and substitution effects from rail transport continued to intensify. Although fuel surcharges were lowered, weak pricing failed to stimulate demand, reinforcing the broker's cautious outlook on the sector.
In terms of specific forecasts, AIR CHINA (00753.HK) -0.050 (-1.220%) Short selling $6.55M; Ratio 15.864% is expected to record a net loss of RMB4.1 billion in 2Q25, compared with a profit of RMB200 million in the same period last year. CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK) -0.050 (-1.597%) Short selling $4.42M; Ratio 19.977% and CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK) -0.060 (-1.780%) Short selling $5.92M; Ratio 23.205% are expected to post losses of RMB3.7 billion and RMB5.2 billion respectively in 2Q25, with losses widening YoY by 756% and 562% respectively. For 1H25, the three major airlines are expected to record an average net loss of RMB2.7 billion. AIR CHINA (00753.HK) -0.050 (-1.220%) Short selling $6.55M; Ratio 15.864% , CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK) -0.050 (-1.597%) Short selling $4.42M; Ratio 19.977% and CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK) -0.060 (-1.780%) Short selling $5.92M; Ratio 23.205% are expected to record losses of RMB2.4 billion, RMB2.1 billion and RMB3.7 billion respectively, representing YoY deterioration of 30%, 19% and 143%.
JPM maintained its views on the related stocks unchanged, keeping Underweight ratings on CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK) -0.050 (-1.597%) Short selling $4.42M; Ratio 19.977% and CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055.HK) -0.060 (-1.780%) Short selling $5.92M; Ratio 23.205% , while maintaining Neutral ratings on AIR CHINA (00753.HK) -0.050 (-1.220%) Short selling $6.55M; Ratio 15.864% and SPRING AIRLINES (601021.SH) +0.730 (+1.613%) . (ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-15 12:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)