Tianfeng Securities: The short-term adjustment of bank stocks does not change the long-term positive logic
Tianfeng Securities' research report indicates that since July 11, bank stock prices have significantly corrected, with the bank index down 3.41% as of July 18. The price correction may mainly be influenced by the following three factors: a phase adjustment after a strong previous rally, an increase in short-term selling pressure due to arbitrage funds' "dividend and exit" strategy, and recent high-level reductions by some bank shareholders possibly affecting market sentiment. After this round of correction, Tianfeng Securities believes that the long-term trend of valuation repair for bank stocks remains unchanged, with specific reasons as follows: 1. Performance in the first half of 2025 may realize some expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals. Specifically: first, the net interest margin is stabilizing marginally. Second, non-interest income is expected to continue improving. Third, the early issuance and rapid use of replacement bonds, along with the implementation of a package of financial policies, continue to alleviate pressure on bank asset quality, and the overall provision in the industry remains sufficient to support profits. 2. The valuation repair trend driven by the funding environment is expected to continue, specifically: against a backdrop of low interest rates and "asset scarcity," banks' high dividend and quasi-fixed income advantages are highlighted; within the high dividend sector, banks have a significant undervaluation advantage; continuous inflow of incremental funds has led to a noticeable repair in bank sector valuations. Based on the above, among quality small and medium-sized banks, Chengdu Bank and Changshu Bank are highly recommended; among state-owned banks, ICBC, ABC, Bank of China, and PSBC are highly recommended
