According to Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities released a research report stating that in the context of high global political and economic uncertainty in the capital market and expectations for stabilizing the economy domestically, investment behavior shows emotional pulses. The coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, with current coal positions at a low level, and the fundamentals have reached the right side of the turning point, making it the right time to layout. Four main lines of selected coal stocks will benefit: Main line one, cyclical logic; Main line two, dividend logic; Main line three, diversified aluminum elasticity; Main line four, growth logic.

The main viewpoints of Kaiyuan Securities are as follows:

This week's news review: Transition from thermal coal to non-thermal coal, coal prices expected to rise

In terms of thermal coal: The price of thermal coal has slightly retreated. As of September 5, the closing price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 679 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, a drop of 1.59%; the current quotation is a retreat below 700 yuan after the recent rebound above 700 yuan. Currently, it is in the transition period between summer and autumn, and the non-thermal coal demand in the upcoming "golden September and silver October" is expected to become a highlight. From the current perspective, the fundamentals of coal still have favorable factors supporting a rebound in coal prices: First, the operating rate is at a low level and is contracting. As of August 31, the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 79.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; second, port inventories are still declining. As of September 5, the inventory in the Bohai Rim was 22.66 million tons, a decrease of 1.48% compared to the previous period, and the inventory at Guangzhou Port has dropped by more than 7% compared to the previous period; third, the non-thermal coal demand on the demand side is expected to take over, especially the coal consumption in coal chemical industries. As of now, the operating rate of methanol is 83.72%, an increase of 1.41 percentage points, and in recent years, coal consumption in coal chemical industries has been a pillar of non-thermal coal.

In terms of coking coal: As of September 5, the quotation for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1540 yuan/ton, rebounding from the bottom of 1230 yuan at the beginning of July; coking coal futures have rebounded even more significantly, rising from 719 yuan in early June to the current 1159 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 61.2%. The current fundamentals of coking coal reflect the characteristics of "strong expectations but weak reality." On the supply side, in mid-July, the National Energy Administration's Comprehensive Department issued a notice on organizing the verification of coal mine production conditions to promote stable and orderly coal supply, and measures to investigate overproduction in coal mines have led to tightening supply expectations; on the demand side, the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to drive overall demand in the black industrial chain, potentially taking over the demand items for steel exports that were strong in the first half of the year.

Investment logic: The prices of thermal coal and coking coal have reached the right side of the turning point, and coal layout is steady and solid

Thermal coal is a policy coal type, and the bank judges that prices will still rebound and repair to long-term contract prices, which have currently been repaired above the second target price, that is, above the actual transaction price of local state-owned enterprise long-term contracts (around 700 yuan). The spot price repairing to the annual long-term contract price is essentially an inevitable result under the dual-track operation mechanism of bulk commodities. The long-term contracts themselves, as preferential varieties, create an inverted relationship with the spot price, prompting downstream users to prioritize purchasing spot goods and temporarily defer purchasing long-term contracts, thereby driving the repair of spot prices. In the future, the bank remains optimistic about the spot price of thermal coal repairing above the third target price, reaching the profit-sharing position of "coal and thermal power enterprises" (estimated to be around 750 yuan in 2025) Regarding whether there is a peak value for the current rise in coal prices, the forecast indicates that the breakeven line for power plant reports is around 860 yuan, which can be considered the fourth target price. Coking coal is a market-oriented coal type, and the bank judges that the price is more determined by the supply and demand fundamentals. The target price can be referenced through the "ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices." The spot price ratio of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port to thermal coal at Qin Port is 2.4 times, thus the target prices for coking coal corresponding to the first, second, third, and fourth target prices of thermal coal are 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan, respectively. Coking coal futures will correct the discount to the spot price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port.

Risk Warning: Risks of economic slowdown, risks of a significant increase in imported coal, risks of accelerated replacement by renewable energy