According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that according to Baichuan Fuying data, on September 19, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry was 1.3 million tons, hitting a nearly one-year low; according to SMM data, the operating rate of photovoltaic glass continued to decline at the end of August, with a production capacity of 129,000 tons/day and an industry operating rate of 51.59% as of the end of August. Additionally, according to SMM data, the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously rising since July. As of September 19, the average prices for 3.2mm single-layer coated and 2.0mm single-layer coated glass were 20.25 and 13.35 yuan/square meter, respectively, an increase of 1.75 and 2.5 yuan/square meter compared to early July. Against the backdrop of anti-involution in the industry, the favorable supply-demand pattern for photovoltaic glass is expected to usher in profit recovery.

Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:

Anti-involution promotes price increase: Industry self-discipline and policy guidance jointly promote recovery

The "anti-involution" action in the photovoltaic glass industry has become a key factor driving price recovery. In July 2025, several photovoltaic glass companies plan to collectively reduce production by 30%, which is an important measure for the industry to respond to vicious competition. In fact, this is not the first attempt by the industry to cut production, but it has achieved more significant results under the current policy environment. Policy guidance has provided strong support for the industry's anti-involution efforts. The sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee proposed "governing low-price disorderly competition by law and regulation, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity." As one of the key areas for "anti-involution" policy governance, photovoltaic glass has received more attention. With the improvement of the supply-demand pattern, the price of photovoltaic glass has begun to rebound from the bottom.

According to SMM data, the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously rising since July. On September 19, the average prices for 3.2mm single-layer coated and 2.0mm single-layer coated glass were 20.25 and 13.35 yuan/square meter, respectively, an increase of 1.75 and 2.5 yuan/square meter compared to early July. Against the backdrop of anti-involution in the industry, the favorable supply-demand pattern for photovoltaic glass is expected to usher in profit recovery.

Photovoltaic glass companies' Q2 performance rebounds from the bottom

The performance of major photovoltaic glass companies in Q2 2025 has shown signs of improvement. FLAT achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 155 million yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46%. The company's gross profit margin increased by about 5 percentage points to approximately 16.7%. KIBING Group also performed well in Q2 2025, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with the photovoltaic glass business generating revenue of 3.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 11%.

At the bottom of the cycle, leading companies have obvious advantages

At the bottom of the photovoltaic cycle, leading photovoltaic glass companies are expected to demonstrate stronger risk resistance and profit resilience due to their scale, cost, and technological advantages. FLAT and XINYI SOLAR together hold a market share of over 50%, and the relatively concentrated market structure gives leading companies stronger bargaining power in price negotiations and capacity adjustments; moreover, cost advantages are an important reflection of the core competitiveness of leading companies, which, with large furnaces and overseas production capacity, demonstrate good profitability Investment Analysis Opinion

Optimistic about the profitability and valuation recovery of leading companies. With the continuous implementation of anti-involution policies and the accelerated clearing of production capacity, the supply-demand structure of the industry will tend to balance. Leading companies are actively reducing production, optimizing capacity structure, and strengthening technological advantages, leading the industry towards a healthier development track. The darkest moment of the photovoltaic glass industry is passing, and leading companies such as FLAT (601865.SH) and KIBING (601636.SH) are expected to achieve dual recovery of profitability and valuation first during the industry's recovery process.

Risk Warning

Policy implementation may fall short of expectations, industry competition continues to intensify, terminal demand may be weaker than expected, and raw material prices may rise