According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guoyuan Securities released a research report stating that it is optimistic about the investment theme of AI, looking forward to the model iteration in 2025 and the continuous prosperity on the application side, which is expected to drive the valuation and performance improvement of the media sector. In terms of sectors, for games: overall, the market sentiment is improving with the launch of new games, and mini-games and MR contribute incremental highlights, focusing on game manufacturers with rich product pipelines, such as KINGNET (002517.SZ). For publishing: stable cash flow, high dividends, actively paying attention to SPM (601900.SH), etc. For film and IP, supply drives box office performance, AI drives IP revaluation, with a focus on MANGO (300413.SZ), etc.

The main points of Guoyuan Securities are as follows:

Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI officially launched the full version of the o1 and sora models, and released the o3 model; CES 2025 opened. In December, domestic and foreign model iterations continued, with OpenAI launching a 12-day new product release event, successively launching the full version of o1, the sora model, and announcing the latest inference model o3. Other overseas manufacturers continued to break through in model development, with Fei-Fei Li's team releasing WorldLabs, Google launching the image generation model Imagen3 and the video generation model Veo2, and Meta releasing the open-source AI model Llama3.3; domestic models are also continuously iterating, with Tencent's Hunyuan model going live and open-sourcing text-to-video capabilities, Kimi releasing the visual thinking model k1, and the domestic large model DeepSeek-V3 being open-sourced. CES 2025 opened, with Jensen Huang delivering the opening keynote speech, announcing the launch of the RTX5090D GPU, the NVIDIA Cosmos world foundational model platform, and other heavyweight content.

Games: The total scale of China's game market in 2024 is expected to be 325.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53%, with the mobile game market at 238.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%. In December, 122 domestic game licenses were issued, along with 13 imported game licenses, totaling 1,306 domestic game licenses and 110 imported game licenses for the year. A-share KINGNET's "Gu Long Qun Xia Lu," "Three Kingdoms: The Rise of the Overlord," "Little Soldiers Fight the World," and "Super Warrior," as well as Shenzhou Taiyue's "Seventh Era Survivor," received approval for domestic game licenses. In the Hong Kong stock market, NetEase's "Infinite" received a domestic game license, while Tencent's "Monster Hunter: Traveler," "Red Alert: Glory," and NetEase's "Top Pursuit" received approval for imported game licenses. In terms of new products, NetEase's mobile game "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" is scheduled for release on January 9; G-bits' "Wen Jian Chang Sheng" will go live on January 2; Perfect World’s "Shen Mo Da Lu" will launch on January 17, and Mu Tong's "Decisive Victory Peak" will be released in January, with high-quality new game supply boosting industry sentiment.

Film: The total domestic box office for the entire year of 2024 is expected to be 42.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.61%. The domestic box office champion is "Hot and Spicy," with a box office of 3.417 billion yuan, accounting for 8.0% of the total box office during the period. The second place is "Racing Life 2" (box office 3.361 billion yuan, accounting for 7.9%), and the third place is "Grab the Doll" (box office 3.328 billion yuan, accounting for 7.8%). The fourth and fifth places are "The Twentieth Clause" and "Bears: Time Reversal," with four of the top five box office films coming from the Spring Festival period Risk Warning

Risk of product performance not meeting expectations, risk of artificial intelligence technology development not meeting expectations, risk of macroeconomic performance not meeting expectations, risk of tightening regulatory policies, risk of intensified industry competition