According to Zhitong Finance APP, Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report stating that as the business model of unmanned logistics vehicles is successfully implemented in logistics distribution scenarios, unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) have considerable prospects for landing in passenger transport, material handling, sanitation, mining, military, and agricultural scenarios. The firm believes that closed scenarios such as warehousing and special scenarios like mining/military meet three major conditions: technical feasibility, policy support, and sound business logic, making unmanned vehicles in related fields likely to see early volume growth.

The main viewpoints of Zhejiang Merchants Securities are as follows:

Broad Application Prospects for Unmanned Vehicles in Multiple Fields

Unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) have promising prospects for landing in multiple scenarios: with the successful implementation of unmanned logistics vehicles (Robovan) in logistics distribution business models, the dawn of unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) expanding into other scenarios is accelerating. There are considerable prospects for landing in passenger transport scenarios (unmanned taxis Robotaxi), material handling scenarios (unmanned forklifts), sanitation scenarios (unmanned sanitation vehicles Robosweeper), mining scenarios (unmanned mining trucks), military scenarios (unmanned combat platforms), and agricultural scenarios (unmanned tractors).

Outlook for the Unmanned Vehicle Industry: Closed and Special Scenarios Expected to Lead Volume Growth

1. Autonomous driving empowers scenario applications: The essence of unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) is the application of autonomous driving technology in specific scenarios. With the development of software and hardware such as algorithms, LiDAR, and domain control chips, the application of autonomous driving is accelerating, and the commercialization of unmanned vehicles has the necessary conditions.

2. The firm believes that the rapid landing of unmanned vehicles requires three conditions: ① technical feasibility; ② policy support; ③ sound business logic.

3. The firm believes that closed scenarios such as warehousing and special scenarios like mining/military meet the above three conditions, making unmanned vehicles in these application fields likely to see early volume growth.

One of the Leading Varieties of Unmanned Vehicles: Unmanned Forklifts: The Global Warehouse Automation Solutions Potential Space Exceeds 2 Trillion RMB, Unmanned Forklifts Help Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency in Warehousing

1. Unmanned forklifts are expected to improve warehouse space utilization, enhance efficiency, and reduce personnel, achieving cost reduction and efficiency enhancement: Traditional warehousing faces issues such as low space utilization (warehouse rent and operating costs can account for 8%-12% of total costs, with many warehouses possibly utilizing less than 60% of their capacity) and low labor efficiency (workers spend 70% of their time walking inefficiently, with manual picking accounting for 55% of total warehouse costs). Building an intelligent warehousing system with unmanned forklifts is expected to improve warehouse utilization and operational efficiency, achieving cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.

2. The global warehouse automation solutions market has vast potential, with a potential space exceeding 2 trillion RMB: In 2024, the global warehouse automation solutions market size is expected to be approximately 471.1 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 12% from 2020 to 2024; it is projected to grow to 804 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.3% from 2024 to 2029. From 2020 to 2024, the penetration rate of global warehouse automation solutions is expected to increase from 18.1% to 22.5%, and it is anticipated to reach 28.5% by 2029

3. Evolution trend of unmanned forklift technology: AMR drives intelligent and flexible upgrades. The global AMR solutions market size is expected to reach approximately 38.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 30.6% from 2020 to 2024; it is expected to reach 162.1 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 33.1% from 2024 to 2029. From 2020 to 2024, the penetration rate of global AMR solutions in the overall warehouse automation sector increased from 4.4% to 8.2%, and it is expected to rise to 20.2% by 2029.

Investment Recommendations

Recommended: Hangcha Group (domestic forklift private enterprise leader, AGV, intelligent warehousing and other new sectors are expected to gain momentum), Zhongli Co., Ltd. (global electric forklift leader, intelligent handling robots open up growth space), Anhui Heli (domestic forklift state-owned enterprise leader, continuous expansion of upstream and downstream), SANY Heavy Industry/SANY International (China's construction machinery leader going global), XCMG (mixed reform benefits highlighted, new XCMG moving towards global construction machinery leader), Shantui (bulldozers going global, excavators opening up space), Taotao Vehicle (North American leisure vehicle leader, expected to strengthen market share), YTO Group (large and medium-sized tractor leader), Beifang Co., Ltd. (China's mining vehicle leader, overseas business opens up growth space), Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (army equipment leader, military trade, unmanned equipment opens up space), etc.

Recommended to pay attention to: China Post Technology, NOBLELIFT, etc.

Risk Warning: 1) Unmanned vehicle volume does not meet expectations; 2) Product technology iteration; 3) Changes in competitive landscape