Guotai Junan Securities: Accelerate the construction of a unified and open transportation market, with multiple sectors such as railways and highways expected to benefit
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified and Open Transportation Market" will promote reforms in multiple areas such as railways and highways, fostering diversified competition and policy optimization. The railway industry will undergo market-oriented reforms to enhance profitability; highway policies will optimize charging and maintenance systems; at the same time, it emphasizes the safety of hazardous materials transportation and the protection of couriers' rights to promote the circulation of goods and social stability
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified and Open Transportation Market" has been published, aiming to accelerate the construction of a unified and open transportation market, with multiple sectors such as railways and highways expected to benefit. Among them, railway reform is imperative, supporting diversified moderate competition; highway policies are expected to be optimized, focusing on the toll road system and maintenance system; deepening low-altitude airspace management reform, with broad development space for general aviation and low-altitude economy. At the same time, it emphasizes strengthening safety supervision of hazardous materials transportation and safeguarding the legal rights of couriers, which will help ensure efficient circulation of goods and social harmony and stability.
Event: On December 23, 2024, to deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system and accelerate the construction of a unified and open transportation market, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified and Open Transportation Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), requiring full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and better play to the role of the government. The "Opinions" involve multiple sub-sectors such as railways, highways, logistics, express delivery, and civil aviation.
Guojin Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
Railway reform is imperative, supporting diversified moderate competition.
The "Opinions" propose: "Accelerate the market-oriented reform of competitive links in industries such as railways... research and formulate a list of public service directories in the fields of railways and postal services, and improve rules for public service standards and subsidies."
Currently, there is only one main operating entity in China's railway industry, the China State Railway Group, with a net profit margin of only 0.27% in 2023. In addition to operational reasons, the China State Railway Group also undertakes a considerable amount of public service. In the future, railway passenger transport may become differentiated, with the positioning of ordinary railway passenger transport as a public service becoming clearer, receiving more government subsidies, while the marketization level of the high-speed rail passenger transport pricing system continues to improve, which will enhance the profitability of railway operating companies through more market competition.
Highway policies are expected to be optimized, focusing on the toll road system and maintenance system.
The "Opinions" propose: "Promote the reform of the highway toll system and maintenance system, and optimize toll road policies," indicating that the "Regulations on the Administration of Toll Roads" may be issued soon, focusing on the toll road system and maintenance system.
With construction costs continuously rising, the current debt repayment pressure in the highway industry is also increasing. There is a need to break through the existing toll duration policy, and the toll period may be extended, presenting an overall valuation repair opportunity for the highway industry. At the same time, considering the guidance from past drafts, the new "Regulations" may stipulate that after the expiration of toll roads, the toll standards can be re-evaluated, and maintenance management fees can be implemented to ensure the funding needs for maintenance management.
Strengthen safety supervision of hazardous materials transportation, optimistic about leading companies in hazardous materials logistics.
The "Opinions" propose: "Improve the safety and emergency management system and mechanism for transportation... strengthen safety supervision in key areas such as passenger and hazardous materials transportation, and resolutely prevent and curb major accidents in the transportation sector."
Currently, the domestic hazardous materials logistics industry is in a highly fragmented state, with many small and medium-sized enterprises facing safety and environmental issues, posing high risk factors. In recent years, regulators have accelerated the introduction of a series of policies to eliminate backward enterprises. Leading companies in the industry can meet customer demands for safe, stable, and efficient logistics, and their market share is expected to further increase Emphasizing the protection of the legal rights of couriers helps to ensure efficient circulation of goods and social harmony and stability.
The "Opinions" state: "Protect the legal rights of consumers and practitioners... Improve the working environment and conditions for practitioners in the transportation sector, standardize corporate operations and employment practices, and legally protect the rights of couriers and other groups."
The express delivery industry occupies an extremely important position in China's economy and social life. In 2024, the volume of express delivery services has exceeded 150 billion items. As frontline workers in the express delivery industry, couriers are directly related to the quality and efficiency of delivery services. Protecting their rights can ensure the stable operation of the express delivery industry, thereby ensuring the efficient circulation of social goods. Additionally, with a large number of couriers, protecting their rights is also beneficial for social harmony and stability. Leading express delivery companies pay attention to the rights of couriers by reducing the possibility of delivery fees being cut or withheld through a "direct link to delivery fees" approach, ensuring that couriers receive their due compensation in a timely manner.
Deepening the reform of low-altitude airspace management, with broad development space for general aviation and the low-altitude economy.
The "Opinions" state: "Improve the comprehensive transportation management system and mechanism... Continue to promote air traffic control system reform, deepen low-altitude airspace management reform, and develop general aviation and the low-altitude economy."
In recent years, with the continuous development of China's economy and society and the continuous improvement of technological levels, the low-altitude economy has entered a stage of rapid growth. Various regions are actively exploring, and since 2024, 29 provinces (regions, municipalities) across the country have included the low-altitude economy in their government work reports. However, the current development of China's low-altitude economy faces issues such as a lack of top-level design and imprecise management of airspace resources. The release of the "Opinions" is expected to accelerate air traffic control system reform, which is beneficial for the further development of general aviation and the low-altitude economy.
Investment Recommendations
Recommend Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH), Meilkwai (603713.SH), Xingtong Co., Ltd. (603209.SH), Ninghu Expressway (600377.SH), ZTO Express-W (02057).
Risk Warning: Policy and regulatory risks, fluctuations in highway and railway rates, macroeconomic risks, safety operation risks, and unexpected price war risks
