On May 26, at the opening, AMEC, CCTech, and SMIC collectively adjusted, and the semiconductor equipment ETF China Merchants (561980) fell nearly 3%. In this regard, fund manager Fang Junyi analyzed that the short-term gains in the semiconductor equipment sector have indeed been high, which may lead to some adjustment demand. However, benefiting from the certainty of production expansion from the two storage listings and solid performance support, the intensity of capital inflow into the sector after the short-term emotional release may still be worth paying attention to. Therefore, from an investment perspective, it may be appropriate to switch from short-term operations to a medium- to long-term view, seeking more suitable and rational participation opportunities.

Where is the semiconductor market currently?

The global semiconductor industry is entering a continuation of the prosperity cycle. According to SIA, global semiconductor sales are expected to reach USD 100 billion by March 2026, a year-on-year increase of 79%, and have been growing for 14 consecutive months.

According to IDC's forecast, the global semiconductor market size is expected to reach USD 1.29 trillion by 2026, breaking the trillion-dollar mark four years earlier than previously expected. Among them, China's market share of semiconductor equipment is rapidly increasing: the domestic market share is expected to grow from 10% in 2020 to 26% in 2025, and is expected to reach 32%, 36%, and 40% in 2026-2028. This means that in the next three years, the revenue growth rate of domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers in China will continue to grow rapidly.

Fang Junyi analyzed that semiconductor equipment and materials have strong Beta + localization + broad demand as threefold catalysts, indicating not a pulse-like high growth, but a significant upward shift in the overall center, which may favor the technology self-controllable sector.

In terms of news, on May 25, Huawei announced the Tao (τ) Law at the International Circuit and System Symposium, achieving a new breakthrough in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. It is reported that this is the first time China has proposed new principles to guide industry development in the global semiconductor field.

Previously, SMIC also released an industrial signal: it stated that the current global production capacity is tight, and the productivity of products such as mobile phones, computers, and IoT that were originally outsourced overseas is difficult to meet, leading to a large number of overseas orders being transferred to domestic manufacturing. China's domestic capacity construction is fast and large-scale, capable of undertaking a large number of returning orders, and SMIC currently judges that this trend is expected to continue until 2027.

Data shows that the semiconductor equipment ETF China Merchants (561980) tracks the CSI Semiconductor Index. According to the CSI Index official website, the top ten weighted stocks, including Northern Huachuang and AMEC, account for a total of 28%, while Cambricon and Haiguang Information account for a total of 15%, and SMIC accounts for 5%, with a concentration of 75% in the top ten. This fund focuses on semiconductor equipment and materials with an 80% allocation while additionally allocating 20% to CPU/GPU and advanced process manufacturing, which is expected to capture multiple industrial chain explosion opportunities.

The medium- to long-term rebound strength of the CSI Semiconductor Index is stronger. According to Wind, as of May 22, this index has accumulated a rise of over 428% since 2020 and over 159% since 2025, ranking first among similar indices in the sci-tech chip and semiconductor materials and equipment sectors, indicating greater resilience in this round of semiconductor upcycle