According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the low-altitude economy policy is catalyzing again. The low-altitude economy is the preferred direction for local balance sheet expansion, and the "new infrastructure" represented by new productive forces is expected to gain favor. The bank is optimistic about the "low-altitude +" strategy, which can achieve a significant investment multiplier effect. From the perspective of new materials, it is recommended to pay attention to carbon fiber and aramid paper segments, while also focusing on other new materials such as PEEK, adhesives, and fiberglass; from the planning and design perspective, the low-altitude economy and design should lead, focusing on the design institutes in the first-mover provinces/cities.

The main viewpoints of Guojin Securities are as follows:

1. Carbon Fiber: Core Lightweight Material for eVTOL

Carbon fiber composite materials have become the core lightweight material for low-altitude economy aircraft due to their ① light weight and high strength, ② corrosion resistance, ③ high-temperature resistance, and ④ electromagnetic interference resistance. Referencing currently issued low-altitude aircraft, such as the U.S. "Global Hawk" unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, China's first all-carbon fiber composite structure unmanned test aircraft "Thunderbird" (LN60F), XPeng Voyager X2 (with rotor blades using carbon fiber epoxy resin-based composite materials and landing gear made of glass-carbon mix), WanFeng AO DA50RG (with fuselage design using carbon fiber composite technology), and PeakFly eVTOL intelligent aircraft V400 (with the entire fuselage using carbon fiber composite material integrated molding technology), overall, carbon fiber composite materials currently account for about 60-80% of the total structural weight of drones.

Taking the XPeng Voyager X2 as an example, the bank conducted a simple calculation. The empty weight of the Voyager X2 is 560 kg. Assuming that carbon fiber composite materials account for 70% of the total weight (taking the median), the corresponding amount of carbon fiber composite materials per eVTOL is about 392 kg (other weights include batteries, motors, etc.). Assuming that the weight of carbon fiber in the composite materials accounts for 52% (the weight of carbon fiber generally ranges from 30-74%, with a wide range, this is a simple calculation using the median), the corresponding amount of pure carbon fiber per eVTOL is about 204 kg.

According to the "Low-altitude Economy Development Trend Report" released by the China Low-altitude Economy Alliance, it is predicted that by 2030, the number of eVTOLs in China is expected to exceed 100,000 units. Based on this calculation, the eVTOL industry in China is expected to drive an increase in carbon fiber of about 20,400 tons by 2030 (not a single-year increase, with 100,000 units being the market holding capacity in 2030, the same below). In 2024, China's demand for carbon fiber is expected to be 60,300 tons, which is expected to become the next key growth pole for carbon fiber.

2. Aramid Paper: Usage per eVTOL Ranges from Dozens to Hundreds of kg

According to the announcement from Minshida Investors, aramid paper honeycomb core materials have characteristics such as light weight, high bending stiffness and strength, strong instability resistance, weight reduction and noise reduction, and fire resistance. They are currently maturely applied in civil aviation, helicopters, and large fixed-wing drones. The usage of aramid paper in the aviation field mainly depends on the design requirements such as the load, power, and safety level of the aircraft, as well as factors like the volume of the aircraft. Generally, the usage per low-altitude aircraft or drone ranges from dozens to hundreds of kg.

The bank conducted a simple calculation, assuming that the usage of aramid paper per eVTOL is about 40-60 kg. By 2030, the number of eVTOLs in China is expected to exceed 100,000 units. Based on this calculation, the eVTOL industry in China is expected to drive an increase in aramid paper of about 4,000-6,000 tons by 2030 3. Other New Materials: PEEK, Adhesives, Glass Fiber, etc.

(1) PEEK has begun to be used in drone blades due to its lightweight, high strength, dimensional stability, corrosion resistance, and high-temperature resistance characteristics;

(2) Adhesives can be used for drone heat dissipation (thermal conductive gel), bonding motor magnets (epoxy series structural adhesives), potting the internal mainboard of electronic speed controllers, motor control circuit boards (three-proof glue), and bonding window screens (hot melt glue), etc.;

(3) Glass fiber, in structures such as carbon-glass hybrid (carbon fiber/glass fiber composite materials), is also applied in the drone field.

4. Planning and Design First, Supporting the Takeoff of the Low-altitude Economy

In addition to the new materials segment, attention should also be paid to the low-altitude economy design sector. The low-altitude economy is driven by low-altitude flight activities, and related fields mainly include low-altitude infrastructure construction, low-altitude aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude operation services, and low-altitude flight support, among which planning and design (such as the construction and implementation of general airports, drone takeoff and landing facilities, and low-altitude air route networks) is a preliminary step in the construction of low-altitude economic infrastructure.

Risk Warning: The promotion of low-altitude economy policies may not meet expectations; the domestic substitution process of new materials such as carbon fiber/aramid paper may not meet expectations; risks of raw material price fluctuations