The electronic hardware industry has entered the off-season. Institutions suggest that in the short term, attention can be paid to manufacturers with strong revenue outlooks for the first half of the year, including Hon Hai (2317), Quanta (2382), Wistron (6669), Qisda (3017), Qincheng (8210), and Chuanhu (2059), which benefit from the increased shipments of GB200 and ASIC AI, as well as ASUS (2357), Shuanghong (3324), and Largan Precision (3008), which will launch the RTX-50 graphics card and the new iPhone 16e.

Large domestic investment advisory firms analyze that due to fewer working days, most IT hardware manufacturers experienced a month-on-month decline in January revenue, but continued to see year-on-year growth, especially in the server supply chain. The demand for general-purpose servers has driven strong revenue growth for most ODM server manufacturers, offsetting the impact of the laptop off-season.

Server component manufacturers saw a year-on-year revenue increase of over 20% in January, exceeding expectations, mainly due to the growth of AI servers. The top five laptop ODM manufacturers in Taiwan experienced a month-on-month shipment decline of 25% in January, but according to guidance, the first quarter will remain flat year-on-year and only decline by 10% quarter-on-quarter, which is better than past seasonal performance.

Previously, the market was concerned that the shipment volume of GB200 cabinets would be lower than expected, and that DeepSeek would have a negative impact on AI demand, leading to downward revisions in the valuations of most server supply chains. Fortunately, major U.S. cloud service providers have released positive capital expenditure outlooks, with a projected year-on-year increase of 32% in 2025, significantly up from the previous estimate of 12%, most of which will be used to invest in AI server infrastructure.

According to industry surveys, the assembly situation of GB200 cabinets has improved, and institutions estimate that the shipment volume of GB200 in the first quarter will be between 2,000 and 3,000 cabinets, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase expected in the second quarter. The four major U.S. CSPs are expected to order 25,000 to 30,000 GB200 NVL72 cabinets this year, with shipments of GB300 starting in the second half of the year, and demand for ASIC AI servers is also expected to grow this year.

Institutions believe that as stock prices reflect negative news, the market should begin to focus on the revenue outlook for the first quarter due to the strengthening shipments of GB200 and ASIC AI servers, and the continued quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in the second quarter for manufacturers including Hon Hai, Quanta, and Wistron.

In the PC sector, brand manufacturers showcased new models at CES, and the RTX-50 gaming PCs will be launched in March. Institutions are optimistic that PC revenue will continue to grow quarter-on-quarter after outperforming seasonal performance in the first quarter. With the sales of NVIDIA RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5070 ramping up, there is a positive outlook for the short-term revenue momentum of graphics card manufacturers