On April 2, the Hong Kong stock market's aluminum sector strengthened against the trend. China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Rusal saw gains. In the A-share market, the aluminum concept surged before retreating, with Yun Aluminum and Yiqiu Resources rising over 2%.

According to Caixin, the latest market news indicates that the Al Taweelah smelter, owned by Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), the largest aluminum producer in the Middle East, was forced to halt operations due to "uncontrolled shutdowns" of smelting equipment after being attacked by Iranian missiles and drones over the weekend.

According to CCTV Finance, Iran recently attacked two large aluminum producers in the Middle East, raising concerns about a global aluminum supply crisis. On Monday local time, international aluminum futures prices surged rapidly. Analysts pointed out that, in terms of impact scale, this round of shocks could become one of the most severe supply disruptions in the history of the aluminum market. The two factories attacked in the Middle East have a combined annual production capacity of about 3.2 million tons, while the total aluminum output of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states exceeds 6 million tons. Signs of tight inventory have already begun to emerge. The deliverable inventory on the London Metal Exchange was already at a low level not seen in over twenty years, and it has further declined amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In market reactions, a significant "spot premium" phenomenon has emerged, where spot prices exceed futures prices, reflecting a tightening of short-term supply.

The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum supply. Currently, the aluminum market is facing multiple shocks: on one hand, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, making it difficult to export supplies; on the other hand, many aluminum production facilities in the Middle East are damaged or even shut down; thirdly, production in other regions around the world is limited, and inventories are already low, leaving almost no buffer in the entire market.

Goldman Sachs analysts previously estimated that the global aluminum market would face a supply gap of about 900,000 tons in the second quarter of this year. This gap will further deplete inventories, reducing global inventory coverage days to just 45 days, even lower than during the supply-tightening period in the aluminum market in 2022.

On April 1 local time, the LME aluminum main contract closed at $3,527.50 per ton, an increase of $91.50 per ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a rise of 2.66%.

Baocun Securities stated that the bombing of the two major aluminum plants in the Middle East is the most significant geopolitical supply disruption facing the global aluminum market in 2026, directly breaking the tight balance of supply and demand in the global aluminum market and causing significant fluctuations in domestic and international aluminum futures prices. This event has an all-encompassing impact on the domestic aluminum futures market through four transmission paths: supply contraction, cost escalation, sentiment boost, and export substitution, quickly pushing futures prices higher in the short term and driving the price center to continue rising in the medium to long term, changing the overall operational trend of domestic aluminum futures. Currently, the domestic aluminum futures market shows a pattern of "tightening supply, supported demand, solidified costs, and bullish sentiment," with the core driving factors of the market shifting from supply and demand fundamentals to geopolitical and supply risks, significantly amplifying price volatility. For various market participants, it is necessary to closely monitor changes in the situation in the Middle East, the progress of capacity recovery, domestic and international inventory and demand data, respond rationally to price fluctuations, and flexibly use futures tools to hedge risks and seize opportunities. In the medium to long term, against the backdrop of a global aluminum supply gap that is difficult to quickly fill, rigid control of domestic capacity, and strong cost support, domestic aluminum futures prices will maintain a relatively strong operation, but geopolitical conflicts, Uncertainties such as changes in demand always exist, and market risks cannot be ignored. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the subsequent developments of events and the dynamics of the industrial chain, timely adjust business and investment strategies, and respond steadily to market changes.

Bank of China Securities pointed out that the aluminum production capacity in the Middle East faces the risk of shutdown, and high oil prices increase transportation costs, focusing on investment opportunities in the aluminum sector under tightening supply. It is recommended to pay attention to China Hongqiao Group, Nanshan Aluminum, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Yun Aluminum.