At 2am tomorrow, markets get the moment they've been building toward all week: the Fed's rate decision. Ahead of it, a 20-year Treasury auction just set a record yield of 5.42%, breaking the 2023 high. Let's dig in 👇

💬 Wall Street is pricing in a near-certain hike at tomorrow's 2am decision — after a week like this, would a surprise hold be the bigger shock?

📊 Quick Recap — What Moved & Why

🇺🇸 US — Fed Decision Looms as 20-Year Yield Hits Record

🔑 Key Event: A 20-year Treasury auction drew a record 5.420% yield, breaking the Oct 2023 high — a weak auction (biggest tail since 2024, lowest indirect-bidder share on record). Markets now price ~90%+ odds of a hike at tomorrow's 2am decision, the first in three years.

@TheCollector : Based on recent past, when the CME FedWatch tool indicates more than 60% rate hike probability into the FOMC meeting, a rate hike will happen. The probability is now close to 90%, so it's very likely.

👀 Other to Watch

Macro

• Saudi's pipeline dispute deepens: Bloomberg says repairs could take up to 6 weeks; US Energy Sec. Wright says "days." Yanbu has loaded zero crude since Sept 11.

Crypto

• The CLARITY Act failed its Senate procedural vote (short of the needed 60) — $Circle(CRCL.US) -11.42%, $Coinbase(COIN.US) -10.10%, $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) -8.39%; ARK Invest sold over $65M of COIN/CRCL hours before the vote.

Company news

• $Meta Platforms(META.US) 's 3rd-gen inference chip (Arke) reaches data centers H1 2027; it canceled the dual-purpose "Olympus" chip on cost grounds.
• $Corning(GLW.US) → Mizuho cut its price target to $180 from $210, following Friday's $2B dilutive offering.
• $Dell Tech(DELL.US) → +1.73%, extending Friday's record-high breakout.
• $Broadcom(AVGO.US) 's CEO reaffirmed unchanged FY27/28 AI revenue targets, pushing back on slowdown fears.

🇸🇬 Singapore — STI Rebounds With the Fed Decision Ahead

🔑 Key Event: $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) closed Tuesday at 5,638.64, then rebounded +0.27% to around 5,653 this morning.

@Fattycat : The Fed's rate call this Wednesday will move Singapore banks, gold and S-REITs... Don't trade the headline, trade the shift in expectations.

👀 Other to Watch

• All three local banks rose: $DBS(D05.SG) +0.39% to S$77.05, $OCBC Bank(O39.SG) +1.29% to S$31.40, $UOB(U11.SG) +0.27% to S$41.44.

🇭🇰 HK/China — HSI Holds Steady Ahead of the Decision

🔑 Key Event: $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) closed Tuesday at 24,667.24, then eased -0.07% to around 24,648 this morning.

👀 Other to Watch

• Tencent and Alibaba reportedly outperformed Tuesday, cushioning the index's decline; this morning both eased slightly: $TENCENT(00700.HK) -0.59%, $BABA-W(09988.HK) -0.19%, $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) -1.36%, $MEITUAN(03690.HK) -0.60%.

📅 Upcoming Key Events

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🚫 No duplicates · ⏰ Deadline: Sept 16, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT

Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏