By Kirk Maltais

-- Corn for December delivery rose 4.5% to $4.81 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Wednesday, after the WASDE report from the USDA showed a lower-than-expected U.S. corn yield.

-- Wheat for September delivery rose 3.6% to $6.53 a bushel.

-- Soybeans for November delivery rose 1.2% to $11.83 1/4 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Stifled Growth: U.S. farmers may produce less corn on their land than forecast earlier this year, the USDA said Wednesday. The agency projected the national corn yield for the 2026-27 season at 180.7 bushels an acre, down from 183 bushels an acre projected in July's report.

It is a larger cut than the one expected by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who forecast an average yield of 182.5 bushels an acre.

The market reacted positively to the yield cut, although the USDA also increased the amount of corn acres expected to be harvested this year to 88.6 million acres, which is why even with the lower yield, the USDA increased its production expectations by 13 million bushels from last month, to 16.013 billion bushels.

Not Fully Baked In: August's WASDE report didn't make any adjustment to soybean export sales forecasts, keeping them the same as July at 1.66 billion bushels.

But the number may not be the complete picture, because it doesn't appear to account for promises made by China to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year.

"[These] are not fully accounted for in USDA's balance sheet yet," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note.

Big Hit: The latest in the back-and-forth offensives between Russia and Ukraine lifted wheat throughout the day.

"Wheat futures are rallying following two grain terminals at Russia's Novorossiysk port that handle roughly 15 MMT of grain exports per year were hit by Ukrainian drones overnight," said AgMarket.net in a note.

The Novorossiysk port is Russia's largest for grain exports, and analysts say that while the extent of the damage to the port is unknown, Russia is expected to struggle to ship its typical volumes of wheat and other grains.

INSIGHT

Erasing Exports: In the aftermath of the Ukrainian strike on the key Russian port in Novorossiysk, Russian wheat exports could sink to their lowest in nearly a decade, said Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon. The firm says the extent of the decline in shipments depends on how extensive the damage to the port is, and how long it takes for Russia to repair it.

"If operations resume within days, the impact on exports will likely be limited," said Andrey Sizov of SovEcon. "If they do not, we could revise our August wheat export estimate down."

Better Than Expected: Average daily ethanol production in the U.S. exceeded the expectations of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week.

The EIA said Wednesday that average daily ethanol production for the week ended Aug. 7 was 1.117 million barrels a day, up 10,000 barrels a day from the prior week, beating the high end of analyst forecasts by 2,000 barrels a day.

Total ethanol stockpiles for the week were reported at 24.8 million barrels.

Recapping the Week: The USDA's weekly export sales report may show a big jump in U.S. soybean export sales.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting exports for the week ended Aug. 6 to land anywhere from 700,000 metric tons to 2.6 million tons. If they hit the higher end of forecasts, then it'll be nearly 1 million more tons in soybean sales than reported last week.

Sales to China are the main driver for the higher estimates, with flash sales being routinely announced in recent weeks.

AHEAD

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

-- The CFTC is due to release its weekly Commitments of Traders Report at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday.

-- The first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour begins Monday.

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grain export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly Crop Progress Report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 12, 2026 16:00 ET (20:00 GMT)

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