CRDO

Mizuho: InP & Memory

Supply Chain & Gating Factors

> InP Laser Supply: Remains tight into 2027E as multiple suppliers work to bring capacity online.

> NPO & CPO Dynamics: NPO continues to act as a near-term bridge for CPO, which is expected to ramp in 2H27/28E.

> CRDO Position: Believed to be the leader in Active Electrical Cables (AEC), with market ramping at a 98% 2024–29E CAGR, driven by additional upside from ZFO, ALC/MicroLED, and SiPho ramps.

> LITE Commentary: 1.6T ramps feature 200G accounting for >25% of revenues, with CPO delayed to 2H27. CRDO benefits from this alongside Neocloud strength for AEC.

Memory & Storage Pricing (NAND/DRAM)

> ASP Spikes: NAND/DRAM Average Selling Prices (ASPs) are projected up 406%/421% y/y in 2026E.

> Growth Moderation: Growth slows down in 2027E, with NAND expected to be flat and DRAM up 52% y/y.

AI DC Short-Reach Copper Cable Split

> Market Expansion: Total units grow steadily from 8M in 2024 to 23M by 2029.

> AEC Adoption: AEC units increase from 0M (2024) to 12M (2027) and 12M (2029), with total AEC penetration (including optical %) scaling to over 40% by 2029.

Estimated Wholesale 1.6T Cable Prices ($)

AEC: $225

ALC: $400

EML-based Transceiver: $700

CPO: $150

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DDRAM $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $EWY