JPM: AIA Expects 1H26 VNB to Rise 15% YoY; Limited Near-term Catalysts
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.JPMorgan upgraded AIA's target price to HKD118, maintaining an Overweight rating. The broker forecasts 1H26 VNB growth of 15% YoY to USD3.26 billion, driven by steady balance sheet expansion and double-digit life sales growth. However, limited near-term catalysts and regulatory visibility in Hong Kong persist. Consequently, JPM prefers Chinese insurers Ping An and China Life for their better valuations and yields ahead of results.
JPMorgan released a report on AIA (01299.HK) -0.350 (-0.439%) Short selling $126.42M; Ratio 11.900% , of which share price has slightly lagged behind so far this year, slipping 0.3%, compared with a 0.9% gain in the HSI.
The broker estimated solid results for 1H26, with VNB reaching USD3.26 billion, up 15% YoY, post-tax operating profit reaching USD3.97 billion, up 10% YoY, and interim DPS at HKD0.54, up 10% YoY. The performance was expected to ride on steady balance sheet expansion, as well as double-digit growth in life business sales and cash flow.
However, the broker said AIA has limited near-term catalysts, while visibility on Hong Kong offshore-related regulations is unlikely to improve notably in the short term. Therefore, ahead of the 1H26 results announcement, the broker preferred Chinese insurers PING AN (02318.HK) -0.050 (-0.085%) Short selling $89.26M; Ratio 16.819% and CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) +0.300 (+1.038%) Short selling $79.98M; Ratio 19.408% , given their more appealing relative valuations and yields.
The TP on AIA was raised from HKD112 to HKD118. The rating was kept at Overweight.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-31 12:25.)