Micron Options Price in a 6.3% Swing: Is It too Conservative?
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Options traders price in a 6.3% swing for Micron post-earnings, but historical data shows an average 9.4% move, suggesting the market may be underestimating volatility. Analysts expect significant earnings and revenue growth, with Tessara Research forecasting a beat on revenue. Bank of America maintains a Buy rating, highlighting margin durability and potential buybacks as key drivers.
Option traders are bracing for a big move in Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) after Wednesday’s close.
History suggests the bet may still be too small.
According to Benzinga Pro data, the option market implies a 6.3% move in either direction after Micron’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
At the current market cap of about $1.2 trillion, that’s roughly $80 billion swing.
Micron Earnings Have Moved the Stock More Than Options Imply
Over its last 10 earnings reports, Micron stock moved an average of 9.4% the next day, up or down. The median move was 9.1%.
The stock moved more than 6.3% in seven of those 10 sessions. Five of them were double-digit moves.
The largest reaction came in December 2024, when the stock fell 16.2% despite beating estimates. The smallest came in June 2025, with a 1% decline.
Recent reports have been less consistent.
Two of the last four reactions stayed below 6.3%. The other two were 10.2% and 15.7%.
What the data shows is that Micron has often moved more than options priced in.
Tonight, the size of the move may depend less on whether Micron beats and more on what it says about margins, capital spending and buybacks.
| Report date | EPS surprise | Revenue surprise | Next-day move | Absolute move | Above 6.3%? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | +22.6% | +16.2% | +15.7% | 15.7% | Yes |
| Mar 18, 2026 | +38.8% | +24.3% | -3.8% | 3.8% | No |
| Dec 17, 2025 | +21.3% | +6.3% | +10.2% | 10.2% | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | +9.4% | +1.9% | -2.8% | 2.8% | No |
| Jun 25, 2025 | +20.1% | +5.2% | -1.0% | 1.0% | No |
| Mar 20, 2025 | +8.3% | +1.8% | -8.0% | 8.0% | Yes |
| Dec 18, 2024 | +3.5% | +0.3% | -16.2% | 16.2% | Yes |
| Sep 25, 2024 | +6.3% | +1.3% | +14.7% | 14.7% | Yes |
| Jun 26, 2024 | +29.2% | +2.3% | -7.1% | 7.1% | Yes |
| Mar 20, 2024 | ∞ (beating negative estimates) | +9.2% | +14.1% | 14.1% | Yes |
| Average | +1.6% | 9.4% | 7/10 | ||
| Median | -1.9% | 9.1% |
Read Also: Should You Buy Micron Stock Ahead of Earnings? Here's What History Says
Micron Earnings: What Wall Street Expects
Analysts expect earnings of $31.45 per share on revenue of $50.75 billion, according to Benzinga Pro. A year earlier, Micron reported $3.03 per share on $11.32 billion in revenue.
That would mean earnings growth of about 938% and revenue growth of about 348%.
Micron guided in June for revenue of $49 billion to $51 billion and earnings of $30 to $32 per share.
Tessara Research Sees a Beat Above the Highest Estimate
Independent research firm Tessara Research has taken a more aggressive position.
“We put 80% on Micron beating the highest revenue estimate,” the firm said.
That highest estimate was $52.08 billion, the top of 22 analyst forecasts in Tessara’s Sept. 22 snapshot.
Tessara’s base-case model points to $56.16 billion, about 10.7% above the Benzinga Pro consensus.
The firm’s reasoning centers on timing. Micron issued its guidance on June 24.
After that, TrendForce forecast conventional DRAM contract prices would rise 13% to 18% from July to September. DRAM is the working memory used in servers, PCs and phones.
In addition, four Taiwanese memory makers reported average monthly revenue about 40% higher in June to August than in March to May.
By comparison, Micron’s guidance midpoint implies about 12% growth in average revenue per day, after adjusting for an extra week in the quarter.
Bank of America Looks Beyond Pricing
Bank of America’s analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating and a $1,550 price objective earlier this month.
That target implies about 44.5% upside from the current price.
According to Arya, investors should focus on gross-margin durability and buyback timing rather than pricing mechanics.
A gross margin near the mid-80% range in fiscal 2027 is key to supporting consensus earnings of $150 to $200 per share.
Arya also expects buybacks could resume from Dec. 9, once restrictions tied to Chips Act grants are lifted. He said Micron’s trailing free cash flow could be enough to retire 8% to 10% of its shares.
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