The situation in the Middle East shows no signs of cooling, and no oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to surge by as much as 20%, with Brent crude oil temporarily rising over 17% to $108.65; WTI crude oil temporarily rising over 19% to $108.31. All three major U.S. stock index futures are down, with declines ranging from 2% to 2.4%. Gold, considered a safe-haven asset, also fell, dropping over 2% to about $5,066 this morning.

In the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Nikkei 225 index is down nearly 6.8%, at 51,841 points; South Korean stocks fell over 7.7%, at 5,152 points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened at 25,075 points, down 681 points or 2.65%. Analysts suggest that as market expectations for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict fade, the Hang Seng Index may test around 24,500 points.

Tech stocks are all down, with Tencent (700) opening down 3.2%; Alibaba (9988) down 4.2%; Meituan (3690) down 3.2%; JD.com (9618) down 3.8%; Xiaomi (1810) down 2.2%, and Baidu (9888) down over 6%. Among other blue-chip stocks, Zijin Mining (2899) is down 5.3%, and HSBC (005) is also down by half.

Oil stocks, however, are moving against the trend, with CNOOC (883) up 8%; PetroChina (857) up 7%; China National Offshore Oil Corporation (632) up 15%; in the oil service sector, Shandong Molong (568) and Bakin Oilfield Services (2178) are both up nearly 15%.

Zhi Yaohui: Major fluctuations are inevitable this week

Zhi Yaohui, director of research at Yaocai Securities, stated that last Friday, the Hang Seng Index night futures closed over 400 points lower than the Hong Kong stock market close, coupled with the adjustment of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks, making it likely for the Hong Kong stock market to open lower today with relatively large fluctuations. The unclear situation in the Middle East is expected to continue to trouble global financial markets, especially as the conflict drives up oil prices, raising concerns about crude oil supply and inflation factors. It is anticipated that the Hong Kong stock market will experience significant fluctuations this week, with the Hang Seng Index expected to fluctuate between 25,000 and 26,000 points.

Zeng Yongjian: The Hang Seng Index may test 24,500 points

Zeng Yongjian, vice chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association, stated that the global stagflation risk brought about by the situation in the Middle East is accelerating the market's liquidation of risk assets, making it difficult for the Hong Kong stock market to escape selling pressure in the short term, with the Hang Seng Index possibly testing 24,500 points. Last week, the market had hoped for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict, leading to a technical rebound in the stock market, including Hong Kong stocks. However, this did not materialize as expected, as U.S. President Trump indicated that the conflict may take 4 to 5 weeks, and the market gradually digests the positive news from China's Two Sessions. Without market expectations, the chances of significant ups and downs in the Hong Kong stock market this week will decrease.

U.S. stock trading begins Daylight Saving Time

Looking ahead to this week, the United States will begin Daylight Saving Time today (March 9), with U.S. stock trading hours and economic data release times moving forward by one hour. China will release its February CPI and PPI data on Monday, followed by the General Administration of Customs releasing import and export data for January and February the next day. According to earlier reports from domestic media, market institutions expect the median year-on-year CPI for February in China to be 0.8%, and the median year-on-year PPI forecast to be negative 1.1%. Overall, inflation is expected to slowly rebound in 2026In addition, the Chinese Two Sessions that started last week will also conclude this week.

The non-farm payroll data released in the U.S. last Friday unexpectedly disappointed, causing the market's predictions for the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts to be postponed again. However, this week, the U.S. will announce important data such as the February CPI; the January core PCE data, which is the "Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator"; and last year's fourth quarter actual GDP. It remains to be seen whether the above data will change the market's current predictions regarding the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts. Additionally, Federal Reserve official Bowman will also deliver a speech this week, which may involve future interest rate cut messages.

Currently, it is the March earnings season for Hong Kong stocks, with important stocks such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750), Cathay Pacific Airways (293), Li Auto (2015), Nio (9866), and Swire Properties (1972) set to announce their latest earnings this week.

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