BofAS: 2Q EV Sales Growth Broadly Weaker Than Expected; Overseas Growth Bright Spot
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.BofA Securities revised automaker forecasts for 2026, citing weaker-than-expected domestic EV sales growth due to reduced subsidies. While most Chinese automakers saw trimmed estimates, Leapmotor and Chery Auto forecasts were raised on strong exports. Overseas expansion remains a key highlight, with significant YoY export growth projected for BYD, Chery, Geely, and Leapmotor. However, all firms face raw material cost inflation, partially offset by premium branding and in-house technology.
BofA Securities published a report reviewing 2Q results of automakers, component suppliers and dealers, and comprehensively revised TP estimates, mainly reflecting changes in sales volume assumptions, earnings outlook and valuation benchmarks extended to 2H26 to 1H27.
For automakers, owing to weak domestic demand, the broker trimmed 2026 sales forecasts for BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) -1.100 (-1.159%) Short selling $408.50M; Ratio 24.186% , GEELY AUTO (00175.HK) -0.340 (-1.736%) Short selling $149.72M; Ratio 22.903% , NIO-SW (09866.HK) -0.620 (-1.613%) Short selling $51.55M; Ratio 39.472% , LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) -2.070 (-3.992%) Short selling $147.21M; Ratio 25.167% , XPENG-W (09868.HK) -1.700 (-3.467%) Short selling $233.47M; Ratio 38.336% , SAIC MOTOR (600104.SH) -0.210 (-1.867%) , BAIC MOTOR (01958.HK) -0.010 (-1.149%) Short selling $1.02M; Ratio 45.739% , GAC Group (00238.HK), GWMOTOR (02333.HK) -0.135 (-1.507%) Short selling $24.65M; Ratio 19.948% , VOYAH AUTO (07489.HK) -0.095 (-3.209%) and SERES (09927.HK) -2.500 (-5.430%) Short selling $9.07M; Ratio 9.500% . However, forecasts for LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) -0.320 (-0.789%) Short selling $126.87M; Ratio 27.761% and CHERY AUTO (09973.HK) -0.880 (-3.200%) Short selling $6.50M; Ratio 6.435% were raised in light of stronger model cycles and export growth. Details of TP adjustments are provided in a separate table.
Regarding key expectations for 2Q results, the broker said EV sales growth was generally weaker than expected after trade-in subsidies were reduced and demand was front-loaded. LEAPMOTOR and NIO-SW performed better, supported by strong model cycles. BYD COMPANY was constrained by limited production capacity for its second-generation Blade Battery, restricting sales growth.
GWMOTOR recorded weak domestic sales due to inventory reduction and lackluster new model performance. Traditional state-owned automakers such as BAIC MOTOR, SAIC MOTOR and VOYAH AUTO reported sales below expectations, while GAC Group's sales were broadly in line with expectations, supported by resilient performance of its proprietary brands.
Overseas growth remained the highlight in 1H26, driven by strong EV exports. The broker expects exports of BYD COMPANY, CHERY AUTO, GEELY AUTO and LEAPMOTOR in 2026 to grow YoY by 72%, 39%, 149% and 340% respectively, reaching 1.85 million, 1.8 million, 1.05 million and 220,000 vehicles. All automakers faced raw material cost inflation, including memory chips, batteries and metals, though some impacts could be mitigated through more favorable product mix, higher export contribution, premium brands and greater in-house technology content.
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