Jefferies Expects Macau Jul GGR to Fall Up to 9% YoY, Full-year Forecast +5%
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Jefferies expects Macau's July GGR to fall 5-9% YoY, with full-year growth forecast at 5%. The broker cites weak Q2 performance and a high comparison base from 2025. It forecasts 2-4% YoY growth for H2 2026, targeting MOP260 billion annual GGR. Jefferies prefers Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment for their premium mass market capabilities, predicting Wynn's adjusted EBITDAR will rise 11.3% YoY in Q2, while Galaxy's is expected to decline 6.8%.
Jefferies said in a research report that the weakness in Macau gaming revenue continued into 2Q. For the seven days up to Jul 19, average daily GGR reached about MOP679 million, up 9.2% WoW, but down 11% from the average daily level in Jul 2025. The broker currently expects total Jul GGR to decline 5% to 9% YoY, equivalent to full-month GGR of about MOP20.1 billion to MOP20.9 billion.
The broker noted that Macau gaming revenue recorded about 19% YoY growth in both Jun and Jul 2025. Against such a comparison base, low- to mid-single-digit YoY growth in GGR for the same period this year would already represent a solid performance and help rebuild investor confidence in the market's medium-term health. The broker forecasts Macau gaming revenue to grow 2% and 4% YoY in 3Q26 and 4Q26 respectively, with full-year GGR expected to reach MOP260 billion, up 5% YoY.
For stocks, Jefferies prefers WYNN MACAU (01128.HK) -0.050 (-0.909%) Short selling $4.15M; Ratio 16.507% and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) -0.240 (-0.747%) Short selling $184.80M; Ratio 41.756% , believing both have stronger operating capabilities in the premium mass market segment. It forecasts adjusted EBITDAR of WYNN MACAU's Macau operations to rise 11.3% YoY in 2Q, while GALAXY ENT is expected to decline 6.8% YoY. (gc/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-07-20 16:25.)