INTC260424P75000

$Intel(INTC.US)Let's do a rough calculation for everyone. Intel currently has an annual revenue of over $50 billion, and excluding the losses from its foundry business, profits exceed $10 billion. With the rise of agentic AI, Xeon series products are in short supply; it's worth noting that Xeon generates significantly higher margins than the client business. Considering the incremental impact of 18A, capacity adjustments, and price hikes, I expect Q4 server product revenue to reach over $8 billion. I estimate total CPU profits at $15-20 billion, so let's conservatively use $15 billion. Applying a conservative P/E multiple of 20x, the CPU business is valued at $300 billion. The foundry business has secured three major clients: Apple's iPhones and Macs, Google/MTK's packaging, and Musk's chip factory. TSMC, with its advanced processes, typically commands a 10x PB, while global foundries with lagging processes usually trade at 2-3x PB. Intel's 18A/14A are advanced processes, although profitability might still be a year away. Conservatively estimating at 3x PB, this segment is worth $300 billion. Thus, the combined conservative value of its CPU and foundry businesses is $600 billion. After cutting about 20%, we arrive at $500 billion, which corresponds to a stock price of $100.