High Yield Recovery Rates Plunge To 35%, Down 16% From A Year Ago And Lowest Since COVID

UBS' credit analyst Matt Mish reported a significant decline in recovery rates for US high-yield bonds, dropping to 35%, a 16% decrease from the previous year and the lowest since COVID. Despite stable default rates in US and EU credit markets, the erosion in loan collateral quality raises concerns about future credit risks.

UBS' credit analyst Matt Mish - who two months sparked a mini crisis on Wall Street when he predicted private credit default rates of 15% - published his April Default Report (available here for pro subs) which saw stable default rates across US and EU credit markets, with US high-yield bonds showing a 2.3% LTM issuer default rate, up 1.1% year-on-year.Recovery rates, however, declined sharply, down 16% to 35%, which is a big red flag as it means that the quality of loan collateral is rapidly eroding.

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