Analyst George Noble claims that SpaceX stock is severely overvalued: the fair price is $30 per share, and retail invest…
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Analyst George Noble is bearish on SpaceX, believing its IPO valuation is severely detached from fundamentals, with a price-to-sales ratio as high as 90-140 times. He pointed out that the rise in stock price is due to artificial short squeezes and warned that retail investors entering at high levels may face total losses. Noble predicts that after the first batch of insider shares are unlocked, selling pressure will increase, and the reasonable stock price for SpaceX is only $30, placing it on his key short list
On July 13th, news emerged that analyst George Noble, who founded Fidelity Overseas Fund, reiterated his bearish stance on SpaceX in a post on the X platform last Sunday (July 12th), warning that retail investors entering at high levels will lose everything.
George Noble stated that this is the largest IPO in history for SpaceX, which is essentially designed to extract money from retail investors, and that its valuation has seriously deviated from fundamentals. He cited data indicating that when SpaceX went public at $135 per share (note from IT Home: the current exchange rate is approximately 915.3 RMB), the price-to-sales ratio exceeded 90 times, and the soaring stock price further briefly raised the price-to-sales ratio to 140 times.
In his view, such a high valuation for SpaceX is difficult to support the company's actual business performance. Moreover, this significant rise in stock price is essentially a result of artificial short squeezing. After the IPO, the SpaceX shares available for market trading accounted for less than 5% of the company's total shares. At the same time, due to the company's rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell Index, a large number of passive funds and ETFs were forced to buy SpaceX shares worth billions of dollars.
Noble commented on this: “On one hand, the market supply is extremely limited, while the buying pressure is forced, which creates an artificial short squeeze.”
Furthermore, according to SpaceX's public documents, the first batch of insider shares will gradually be unlocked after the company's second-quarter financial report is released, at which point a large number of employees and early investors will sell their shares, potentially leading to a significant increase in the number of shares available in the market. In the coming months, the factors affecting SpaceX's stock price will no longer be the company's operational fundamentals, but rather this series of plans. Unfortunately, not many people will take the time to read the prospectus.
Now, George Noble has placed SpaceX on his key short-selling list, believing its fair price is only $30 per share (the current exchange rate is approximately 203.4 RMB).
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