Apple's faster than expected shift away from Qualcomm (QCOM) modems is set to reduce Apple related revenue in the near term. At the same time, Qualcomm is leaning harder into automotive, data centers, and advanced wearables.

QUALCOMM's recent news around Apple, data centers and wearables comes after a mixed price pattern, with the share price up 7.12% over 30 days but down 21.86% over 90 days. The 1 year total shareholder return of 7.77% and 3 year total shareholder return of 69.40% indicate that long term holders have still seen solid gains.

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QUALCOMM stock has rallied over the past month while still trading near many fair value estimates. With the share price only slightly below some analyst and intrinsic value markers, how much real upside or downside is left on the table?

Most Popular Narrative: 14% Undervalued

QUALCOMM's most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of $196.27 versus the last close at $168.74. That gap is built on a very specific earnings and revenue path over the next several years.

Rapid growth in automotive and industrial IoT segments, supported by strong design win momentum and a robust multi-year pipeline (with a combined $22 billion revenue target by 2029), is set to diversify Qualcomm's revenue base and drive margin-accretive growth as these businesses become a larger share of total earnings.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is assumed for QUALCOMM when automotive, IoT and data center all step up at once? The narrative ties together revenue growth, margins and a future earnings multiple into one tight fair value story. The key assumptions are bolder than they look from the outside.

Result: Fair Value of $196.27 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, QUALCOMM's story could change quickly if Apple related revenue fades faster than expected, or if new AI and data center projects struggle to gain traction.

Find out about the key risks to this QUALCOMM narrative.

Next Steps

The mixed sentiment around QUALCOMM will mean different things to different investors, so move quickly to review the full picture and shape your own view with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.