Event overview: SailPoint’s Entro Security acquisition

SailPoint (SAIL) has completed its acquisition of Entro Security, bringing non-human identity and credential protection into its identity security platform for enterprises managing human, machine, and autonomous AI agent access.

See our latest analysis for SailPoint.

Despite the Entro Security deal highlighting SailPoint’s push into non human and AI identity security, recent trading has been weak, with the share price at US$13.71 after a 1 day share price return decline of 7.68% and a 7 day share price return decline of 13.50%. The 90 day share price return is up 23.29% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 33.54%, suggesting longer term holders have faced pressure even as shorter term momentum has been mixed.

If this shift in AI focused security has your attention, it could be a good time to see what else is out there with 31 AI small caps

SailPoint now trades at US$13.71, while analyst targets cluster closer to US$18.90 and one intrinsic estimate implies a smaller discount. The question is where fair value might realistically sit between that gap as the valuation work opens up next.

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Overvalued

At a SailPoint share price of $13.71 versus a widely followed fair value of $13.12, the current setup leans slightly rich and hinges on specific long term assumptions.

In order for you to agree with the more bearish analyst cohort, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $1.8 billion, earnings will come to $211.9 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 47.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.6%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue curve, margin lift and future earnings multiple that fair value leans on? The core narrative rests on stronger cash generation, a richer profitability profile and a premium valuation that would need sustained conviction to hold up.

Result: Fair Value of $13.12 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, SailPoint could surprise this bearish setup if larger security vendors struggle to displace it in core accounts, or if cloud migrations accelerate faster than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this SailPoint narrative.

Another view on SailPoint’s valuation

While the most followed SailPoint narrative sees the stock as about 5% overvalued at US$13.71 versus a US$13.12 fair value, our DCF model points the other way, with an estimated future cash flow value of US$16.54, or roughly 17% above the current share price. Which signal should carry more weight for you?

For a closer look at how this cash flow based view is built, including the assumptions sitting under each step, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SailPoint for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 45 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Given the mixed tone around SailPoint’s valuation, now is the time to review the numbers yourself, weigh the trade offs, and see the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more SailPoint sized investment ideas?

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• Target potential mispricing by running through companies that appear to trade below their estimated worth using the 45 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise resilience by scanning for businesses with strong finances through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (47 results).
• Focus on fresh opportunities by reviewing financially sound companies that many investors may be overlooking with the screener containing 19 high quality undiscovered gems.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.