According to Zhitong Finance APP, today the three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market opened high and rose, but briefly turned negative in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng TECH Index continuing to decline. The poor earnings expectations for SK Hynix triggered a valuation digestion, leading to a collective sharp drop in Korean stock ETFs; the renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about supply disruptions, causing oil and gas ETFs to rise against the trend. By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.16% to 24,213.72 points, with a total turnover of HKD 309.515 billion; the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 0.96% to 4,676.43 points. In terms of Hong Kong stock ETFs, among the top products by size, the TRACKER FUND (02800) rose 0.24% to HKD 24.68; CSOP KOSPI (07709) fell 33% to HKD 59.9; CSOP HS TECH (03033) fell 0.95% to HKD 4.59.

Industry Performance

1. The poor earnings expectations for SK Hynix triggered a valuation digestion, and the tightening of regulations on single-stock leveraged ETFs combined with concerns about interest rate hikes led to a collective sharp drop in Korean stock ETFs. By the close, CSOP KOSPI (07709) fell 33% to HKD 59.9; CSOP Samsung Electronics (07747) fell 20.09% to HKD 89.14; TR Korea (02848) fell 11.09% to HKD 1,616.

As of July 13, the KOSPI index in South Korea plummeted nearly 9%, with SK Hynix closing down over 15% and Samsung Electronics down over 10%. The Korea Exchange activated the SIDECAR mechanism to suspend programmatic selling of KOSPI. Local brokerage KIS in South Korea expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter to be KRW 60.4 trillion, which, although a year-on-year surge of 556%, is still 8% lower than the market consensus estimate. Additionally, after SK Hynix's ADR was listed on Nasdaq last Friday, profit-taking sentiment in the market intensified, while South Korean financial authorities have begun researching volatility suppression measures for single-stock leveraged ETFs.

It is noteworthy that SK Hynix's ADR surged nearly 13% on its first day of trading on Nasdaq on July 10, but after the significant positive news, it faced a sharp correction. Phillip Wool, Chief Research Officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, pointed out that this round of selling "does not really indicate any decline in people's enthusiasm for AI hardware," but is mainly due to risk management considerations, as many investors have accumulated large long positions after the strong rise of South Korean AI chip manufacturers.

2. The renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about supply disruptions, and international oil prices continued to rise, causing oil and gas ETFs to rise against the trend. By the close, the S&P Oil & Gas ETF from Invesco (513350.SH) rose 3.96% to HKD 1.181; the S&P Oil & Gas ETF from Harvest (159518.SZ) rose 2.34% to HKD 1.093; F Samsung Crude Oil Futures (03175) rose 3.15% to HKD 9.175.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the morning of July 12, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "until further notice and until the United States stops interfering in this region." The statement said that several ships attempted to navigate along a route not approved by Iran and ignored warnings, with one being hit by warning shots from Iran The U.S. Central Command launched a new round of strikes at 5 PM Eastern Time on July 12, marking the fourth strike against Iran by the U.S. military within a week. Zhengxin Futures believes that with the resurgence of short-term geopolitical turmoil, the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked again, and there are signs that military conflicts could spread to other countries. If this coincides with the urgent replenishment caused by seasonal demand and concerns about the strait, oil prices may still have room for rebound, but caution is still needed regarding the fluctuating market news.

Yao Yuan, Senior Investment Strategist at Amundi Asset Management's Asia Investment Research Institute, pointed out that the differences between the U.S. and Iran remain significant. It is still uncertain whether the concessions from the U.S. side are merely a delaying tactic before the mid-term elections, and subsequent negotiations face considerable uncertainty. The key issue is whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be fully guaranteed, as the direction of energy prices will affect inflation, thereby continuing to subtly influence the Federal Reserve's policy balance. Yao Yuan specifically mentioned that against the backdrop of conflicts in the Middle East, insurance costs have surged to 20 times pre-war levels, which poses substantial constraints on transportation costs and volumes.

Institutional Views

The strategy team led by Chen Guo at East Money pointed out that since mid to late June 2026, the volatility of the TMT sector relative to the market has significantly increased, which is basically comparable to the situation after the concerns about the U.S. AI bubble in September and October 2025, when the market experienced considerable divergence and the main line of the market began to "cool off" temporarily. The next important observation point will be in mid to late July, firstly to see if SK Hynix's performance after its U.S. stock listing can outperform SpaceX, secondly, major overseas semiconductor manufacturers and CSP giants will successively release financial reports, with a focus on changes in CSP manufacturers' profit margins, performance guidance, and AI CAPEX guidance, and thirdly, an important domestic conference at the end of July, at which point clues will become clearer.

The strategy team at East Money believes that the internal and external environment of the Chinese stock market in Q3 2026 has the conditions to "rebalance." In the process of the market moving towards diversification, there is hope for a gradual repair of assets that may have been "wrongly killed." For example, attention can be paid to some quality blue-chip assets that experienced significant declines due to "panic selling" caused by extreme market differentiation in mid to late June. In terms of overall industry allocation, it is recommended to focus on non-bank financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, the internet, essential consumer goods, gaming, coal, lithium batteries, etc. In terms of themes, it is suggested to pay attention to commercial aerospace, robotics, etc. Meanwhile, in the medium term, the allocation value of "real technology" leaders in the domestic AI chain is still optimistic.

ETF Trends

The Green Power ETF by Penghua (159067.SZ) was listed on its first day, closing down 1.79% at 0.985 yuan, with a transaction volume of 72.3395 million yuan; the fund closely tracks the National Green Power Index, mainly covering listed companies engaged in green power-related businesses