Is SpaceX (SPCX) a $10 Stock? Why This Bear Says Yes
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Investors Scott Galloway and George Noble argue SpaceX (SPCX) is overvalued, estimating shares at $10-$30 versus the current ~$143. They attribute high valuations to limited initial float, Nasdaq-100 inclusion, and AI infrastructure hype rather than fundamentals. While they predict significant downside, Galloway notes Musk's ability to drive excitement may sustain prices. Conversely, Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $232.35.
Rocket and AI company SpaceX (SPCX) remains "crazy overvalued" even after its sharp post-IPO decline, according to marketing professor and investor Scott Galloway. Speaking on his podcast, Galloway estimated that the stock is worth only $10 to $30 per share versus its current price of roughly $143. Galloway believes that part of SpaceX's current valuation is due to the unusual way SpaceX entered the public market.
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High conviction SPCX bulls now have this Tradr ETFMore specifically, only about 4% to 5% of its shares were initially available for trading. With relatively few shares available, strong investor demand could have a much larger effect on the price. Its quick addition to the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) then created another source of demand because funds tracking the index had to buy shares.
That helps explain why Galloway thinks SpaceX's market value may have become disconnected from its current financial fundamentals. He also says that investors are valuing what SpaceX could become rather than what its rocket and satellite businesses produce today.
SpaceX's AI Ambitions Are Driving Its Valuation Higher
Indeed, SpaceX's valuation is becoming increasingly tied to its plans for AI infrastructure. This became clear less than two weeks after the IPO, when the company completed a $25 billion bond offering despite reporting $100.8 billion in cash and equivalents. Although SpaceX primarily planned to use the proceeds to repay a bridge loan, Galloway views the financing as evidence that investors are assigning significant value to the company's capital-intensive AI plans.
Interestingly, he is not alone in seeing downside. Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble told Business Insider that SpaceX and electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) were among the market's best short opportunities. Noble also valued SpaceX at around $30 per share and predicted that the stock could fall as much as 50% by year-end.
Galloway, however, is not willing to short SpaceX himself. He believes that Elon Musk's ability to create excitement around new businesses could push the stock higher regardless of traditional valuation measures, which could create significant risk for bearish investors.
Is SPCX Stock a Good Buy?
Overall, Wall Street analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on SPCX stock based on 24 Buys, five Holds, and two Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average SPCX price target of $232.35 per share implies 61.7% upside potential. (See SPCX Stock Forecast).