Dan Ives Just Gave Elon Musk and SpaceX Some Great News
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Wedbush analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage on SpaceX with an 'Outperform' rating and a $190 price target, implying 18% upside. He highlights Starlink's connectivity growth and AI infrastructure as key drivers, projecting a $2.48 trillion enterprise value by FY2028. Despite bullish long-term prospects, the stock remains volatile with an extreme valuation, requiring significant capital expenditures to realize projected revenue growth.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.32%) and its record-setting IPO have arguably been the biggest story in the stock market this summer. And now that Elon Musk’s mammoth company is finally public, analysts are starting to weigh in on the merits of SpaceX.
On Wednesday, Wedbush Securities and analyst Dan Ives initiated coverage on SpaceX stock, assigning an “Outperform” rating and a price target of $190, representing potential upside of 18% from its price at this writing.
Considering that SpaceX has been a roller coaster since opening at $150 on June 12, rising as high as $225 before giving back most of those gains, will Ives’ bullish outlook give investors reason to consider SpaceX stock now?
Wedbush’s rosy outlook
Ives, the managing director of Wedbush, has been one of the most visible and influential tech analysts on Wall Street, particularly involving key artificial intelligence stocks. Wedbush has even started an exchange-traded fund under his name, the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF, built around his research.
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Ives writes in his coverage that SpaceX is a future major hyperscaler with "one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market" with its connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure segments. The firm’s $190 price target reflects fiscal year 2028 revenue estimates that imply an enterprise value of approximately $2.48 trillion.
The primary profitability driver, Ives wrote, is the company’s Connectivity division, which includes the Starlink global satellite internet constellation, comprising 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit. Starlink provides mobile and broadband services in 30 countries and six continents, currently serving more than 10.3 million customers.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
Ives wrote that Starlink is "still in the early innings of penetrating the global telecom and broadband market," noting that SpaceX has less than 1% market share. Starlink is also bolstered by SpaceX’s rocket-launching business and the development of its Starship space vehicle. Starship, once fully operational, is expected to carry 60 Starlink satellites per launch, up from 27 on the company’s smaller Falcon 9 rockets. Ives calls it "an incremental driver of its highly profitable broadband connectivity business."
The long play is AI
While Starlink is SpaceX’s only profitable business right now, AI represents the biggest opportunity for Musk’s company. According to SpaceX’s prospectus, AI represents a massive $26.5 trillion market opportunity. The AI division, which includes the X social media platform and the Grok large language model and chatbot, had $3.1 billion in sales in 2025, but lost $6.35 billion over the year.
However, SpaceX aspires to turn its AI division into a hyperscaler, using a satellite network and solar power to provide computing capacity that could generate billions in annual revenue. SpaceX already has deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI to provide computing capacity in terrestrial data centers. SpaceX is expected to generate $2 billion per month from those contracts.
Ives said that AI and computing capacity are "still in early innings over the next decade," but have the potential for long-side upside for SpaceX stock.
Even with Wedbush’s outlook, SpaceX will be a volatile stock
IPO stocks often struggle to hold their gains in the first few months after going public, and SpaceX has been no different so far. Even with Wedbush’s coverage today, SpaceX stock is down about 6% in morning trading.
The stock trades at an extreme valuation, with a price-to-sales ratio of 115.6, suggesting investors are pricing in expected performance beyond the company’s current financials.
SpaceX has a huge opportunity, particularly in AI, but it will also incur significant expenses that will likely weigh on the stock. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the IPO, projects that the company’s revenue will jump from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion by the end of the decade. But to make that happen, SpaceX plans to spend $350 billion in capital expenditures by 2030.
Whether you are swayed or not by Ives’ coverage and bullish take, investors in SpaceX should expect plenty of ups and downs in the years ahead.