Is SpaceX an AI play or a space stock? Two months after the IPO, investors still can't decide.
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.DataTrek Research analysis reveals that SpaceX's stock performance is not strongly correlated with Big Tech or the broader space sector, making it an idiosyncratic investment. Despite its $1.7 trillion valuation and recent IPO, shares move more like the Nasdaq-100 than peers like Tesla or Nvidia. The only significant correlation is with EchoStar, likely due to expected stake acquisition. Investors remain uncertain whether to classify SpaceX as an AI play, space stock, or telecom disruptor.
By William Gavin
Shares of SpaceX don't trade like the 'Big Tech' stocks, and their correlation to the space sector is 'mixed,' according to a new analysis
SpaceX has been a public company for 45 trading days and remains an idiosyncratic investment play.
SpaceX was founded more than two decades ago and has been a publicly listed company for 45 trading days, but investors may still be trying to figure out exactly what they're buying.
The company is a lot of things, combining an industry-standard rocket-launch business with a growing satellite-communications offering that could threaten the telecommunications industry. Plus SpaceX (SPCX) is ramping up its artificial-intelligence efforts after acquiring xAI.
As a result, SpaceX isn't yet a "clean proxy" for any investment theme, according to DataTrek Research, which ran a statistical analysis into correlated stock performances since the company's IPO.
"Six weeks and one earnings report into public life, the market still hasn't decided what SpaceX is," DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe said in a note.
When SpaceX went public, it did so at a more than $1.7 trillion valuation, putting it firmly in the upper echelon of companies by market capitalization. At its peak, SpaceX was briefly worth more than Amazon.com (AMZN).
But SpaceX's stock actually has "almost no relationship" to Big Tech, according to DataTrek, which cited the 30-day trailing correlations of various stocks.
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) "barely" move in step with SpaceX's stock, DataTrek added. Amazon and Meta Platforms (META) have slightly negative correlations to SpaceX's stock moves.
SpaceX's stock even trades more similarly to the broad Nasdaq-100 NDX or S&P 500 SPX indexes than it does to Tesla's stock (TSLA), even though the companies share a CEO in Elon Musk.
There have even been rumors that SpaceX and Tesla will combine, which Musk hasn't directly ruled out. Several Wall Street analysts have said a merger could be announced by the end of 2027, which may be pressuring Tesla shares. Tesla's stock is up just 3% so far this year.
"For companies that share a founder, a committed retail investor following and a reputation for volatility, we would have expected a tighter relationship," Rabe said.
SpaceX's stock performance is arguably most linked to peers in the space and satellite world, according to DataTrek - though there's a big caveat.
Its performance is most correlated with shares of EchoStar (ECHO), but that's likely because the satellite-communications firm is expected to get a stake in SpaceX, which has made it a proxy for the stock. Half of the two stocks' daily price action over the last 30 days can be explained by moves in the other, DataTrek said.
"Strip out EchoStar, and the satellite/space cohort's relationship to [SpaceX] is mixed against the broader market," Rabe wrote.
-William Gavin
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