SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock faces another test on Thursday, with the company reaching its second post-IPO lockup expiration today. About 319 million shares held by early investors and employees become eligible for trading, following the August 6 expiration involving around 912 million shares.

Summer Sale - Claim 70% Off TipRanks

High conviction on SPCX? Try Tradr's SPCM or SPCG

So far, the first unlock produced a very different outcome from what some investors feared. Since August 6, SpaceX stock has climbed about 27%, suggesting that greater availability of newly tradable shares did little to derail investor enthusiasm. SPCX is moving the other way today, however, slipping nearly 3% as the second expiration arrives.

Despite that strong run, one investor, with the moniker of J Thesis (JT), believes this is hardly an ideal moment to chase SpaceX stock. He sees considerable long-term potential in the company, but thinks the current share price leaves little room for anything to go wrong.

"Personally, it remains a sit-on-hands moment for me," JT explained while discussing his Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating. (To watch J Thesis' track record, click here)

His caution comes despite considerable enthusiasm about SpaceX's underlying operations and longer-term growth prospects. The company's first quarterly report since going public delivered 92% year-over-year revenue growth, while its Connectivity segment posted 66% revenue growth and 79% growth in operating income. JT believes continued expansion within aerospace, satellite internet, and AI could support meaningful financial gains over coming years.

However, the price investors currently pay leaves JT unwilling to join the bulls. SPCX trades near 72 times projected FY2027 earnings, compared with about 25 times for the IT sector median. That premium means future financial performance must justify expectations that have become demanding following the stock's recent climb.

"I don't really love when stocks are trading at such hefty valuations," JT said. "Why? Well, it leaves little room for error in my opinion, and I don't think that downside is protected."

That concern becomes especially relevant when considering SpaceX's aggressive capital spending plans. The company spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures during Q2, with much of that spending directed toward AI infrastructure. Those expenditures could ultimately support greater scale and stronger profits, although JT believes investors should consider what happens if the expected payoff falls short.

"Could it happen so that those heavy investments don't lead to significant top and bottom-line growth? Sure," JT wrote.

The remaining lockup schedule gives him another reason to remain patient with SPCX. Thursday represents only another stage in releasing restricted holdings, meaning additional stock could become available during future expirations. August 6 demonstrated that eligibility alone does not guarantee selling, yet JT believes the potential supply creates another risk worth considering.

"To be honest, that's also one of my biggest concerns over the following year," JT said regarding the remaining lockup period.

Ultimately, JT separates his enthusiasm for SpaceX as a company from his view of SPCX as an investment today, concluding: "I'd prefer watching this from the sidelines."

Wall Street is more upbeat on SpaceX, with the stock earning a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buys, 5 Holds, and 3 Sells. The average 12-month price target stands at $232.35, implying about 70% upside from the current share price. (See SPCX stock forecast)