SpaceX Stock Drops After Musk's Starship Update, Share Unlock and a Downgrade
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.SpaceX stock dropped 6% following Elon Musk's updated Starship timeline, the expiration of a lockup period releasing 319 million shares, and DZ Bank's initiation of coverage with a Sell rating. Musk indicated that catching the Starship upper stage will likely occur within the next few months, later than the late-August expectation set in August. Despite this short-term negative sentiment and valuation concerns cited by analysts, Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $232.35.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock is falling 6% on Thursday as investors digest Elon Musk's latest Starship update alongside the company's second post-IPO lockup expiration. Musk said SpaceX will likely catch Starship within the next few months, moving the expected milestone beyond the late-August timeframe discussed during the August 4 earnings call. Meanwhile, about 319 million shares covered by the lockup became eligible for trading today, adding potential supply to the market.
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Two ETFs for long or short leverage on SPCXIt also doesn't help that DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sell rating and $100 fair value, arguing that the capital required to execute the company's long-term plans makes its current valuation difficult to justify.
With so much of SpaceX's valuation resting on what the company can accomplish in the years ahead, any change to the Starship timeline can matter to investors. SpaceX has successfully caught the Super Heavy booster several times using the launch tower's chopstick arms, but catching the Starship upper stage has never been accomplished within the space industry. Completing that maneuver would bring SpaceX closer to making the entire launch system fully reusable, an important requirement for flying Starship far more frequently.
That helps explain why Musk's latest timetable could be weighing on the stock today. During the August 4 earnings call, SpaceX discussed attempting a Starship catch on its next flight, which was tentatively scheduled for late August, while Musk now expects the achievement within the next few months. The revised timetable therefore moves the milestone beyond what investors had been led to expect earlier this month.
Still, the change does little to alter the longer-term importance of reaching full rocket reusability. Musk said during the earnings call that SpaceX had made substantial progress on Starship's heat shield, another essential requirement for eventually flying the vehicle multiple times each day. Successfully catching and rapidly reflying the upper stage would take SpaceX another step toward that goal.
Starship's progress matters well beyond the rocket program, given how heavily SpaceX's future plans depend on cheaper and more frequent launches. Rapid reusability could support continued expansion of Starlink broadband and Starlink Mobile while providing launch capacity for the company's planned Starmind orbital data centers. SpaceX intends to begin launching those data centers in 2027, while another important Starship milestone could arrive in late 2026 or early 2027 with the first planned in-space engine relight.
Overall, Wall Street remains bullish on SPCX, with the stock earning a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buy recommendations, 5 Holds, and 3 Sells. The average 12-month price target stands at $232.35, implying about 77% upside from current levels. (See SPCX stock forecast)