Oil Price Surge Raises Odds of Fed Rate Hike
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.Rising oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100/barrel and US gas hitting $4/gallon, have increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. CME FedWatch data shows the likelihood of a September rate increase rose to 82% from under 53% last week, with nearly 38% chance of a 0.25-point hike. Despite this, markets still largely expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in the upcoming meeting.
As oil prices advance, investors are increasingly preparing for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, federal funds rate futures indicate that the probability of the Fed raising rates at its September policy meeting is about 82%, up from less than 53% a week ago.
The market still generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at next week's meeting. Even so, expectations for rate hikes have reinforced, with federal funds rate futures trading implying a nearly 38% probability of a 0.25-ppt rate hike, compared with less than 12% a week earlier.
Global crude benchmark Brent oil futures climbed above USD100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since late May, as a new round of retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran escalated. AAA data showed that average US gasoline prices rose to USD4 per gallon this week, the highest level in more than a month.