Record-long bond yield: The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.13%, the highest since June 2007, driven by inflation fears and weak auction demand. Geopolitics stoke prices: Oil prices jumped as the U.S.-Iran conflict showed no progress toward resolution, adding to inflationary pressures from energy costs. Fed policy outlook: Markets now price in a nearly 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end, reversing earlier expectations for cuts.