Telecom Earnings Reveal a Sector That Finally Looks Healthier
I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon reported Q2 earnings showing sector health with EPS growth and increased shareholder returns. AT&T surged on subscriber gains and low churn from its convergence strategy. T-Mobile sold off despite an EPS beat due to declining postpaid additions and weak guidance. Verizon posted the biggest upside surprise with a massive subscriber beat and raised guidance, highlighting divergent market reactions among the telecom giants.
Three telecom giants reported Q2 earnings over three days, and now that the market has had time to digest, a theme is emerging in the sector.
One positive trend from the trio of reports last week is that telecommunications companies are no longer paying up for growth through promotions or subsidization. All three companies grew earnings per share (EPS) year over year (YOY) in Q2, indicating stronger retention economics and subscriber growth. Additionally, all three increased shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, a signal to the market that management thinks it's sitting on a cheap stock.
To choose a winner from Q2, we’ll need to break down the earnings reports in greater detail. Despite earnings, subscriber, and cash flow growth, not every stock responded the same way after its release. The sector as a whole might be its healthiest in years, but not every carrier is capturing upside in the same way.
AT&T: Q2 Metrics Show Convergence Thesis Unlocking New Growth Opportunities
AT&T MarketRank™ Stock Analysis
- Overall MarketRank™
- 100th Percentile
- Analyst Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Upside/Downside
- 21.3% Upside
- Short Interest Level
- Healthy
- Dividend Strength
- Strong
- News Sentiment
- 0.77
- Insider Trading
- N/A
- Proj. Earnings Growth
- 9.48%
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Another bullish beacon is the impressively low churn rates in Q2 despite carrier price increases. Postpaid wireless churn declined to 0.86% YOY, indicating that fewer than 1% of customers cancel their plans each month. Additionally, 42% of home internet customers now subscribe to AT&T wireless, supporting the ‘convergence’ thesis of selling wireless and internet services to the same households. The Q2 metrics show that this strategy is not only driving growth and earnings but also decreasing churn rates.
Management reaffirmed full-year EPS guidance of $2.25 to $2.35 and free cash flow guidance of $18 billion while committing to $45 billion in shareholder returns through 2028. The share repurchase program was increased from $8 billion to $10 billion, as CEO John Stankey cited improved cash flow and the stock's value (10.29 times forward earnings). If there’s one fly in the ointment, it’s the dividend, which has remained frozen at $1.11 annually since 2022 and continues to be stagnant despite the capital return commitments.
T-Mobile: Headline Numbers Shroud Murky Guidance That Triggered Sell-Off
T-Mobile US MarketRank™ Stock Analysis
- Overall MarketRank™
- 99th Percentile
- Analyst Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Upside/Downside
- 40.4% Upside
- Short Interest Level
- Bearish
- Dividend Strength
- Moderate
- News Sentiment
- 0.71
- Insider Trading
- Selling Shares
- Proj. Earnings Growth
- 23.46%
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T-Mobile doesn’t publish phone churn rates (only account churn rates), but management prepared the market for a weak Q3 due to “rate plan modernization,” i.e., price hikes. Q3 postpaid net account guidance of just 250,000 adds likely triggered the sell-off. Disappointing results following a strong start to the year in Q1, and the market punished the missteps.
It should be noted that despite the weak subs and troublesome guidance, the earnings growth does appear real. Average revenue per account (ARPA) grew 2% to $152.91, and management guided full-year ARPA to 2.5% to 3%. T-Mobile is deliberately trading volume for monetization, accepting lower subscriber growth in exchange.
Verizon: The Cash Flow King Posts Biggest Upside Surprise
Verizon Communications MarketRank™ Stock Analysis
- Overall MarketRank™
- 93rd Percentile
- Analyst Rating
- Hold
- Upside/Downside
- 8.0% Upside
- Short Interest Level
- Healthy
- Dividend Strength
- Strong
- News Sentiment
- 0.71
- Insider Trading
- N/A
- Proj. Earnings Growth
- 6.02%
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Management expects mobility and broadband service revenue to grow 3% in Q3 and 4% in Q4, and boosted full-year EPS estimates to $4.99 to $5.04 and free cash flow estimates to $21.9 billion to $22.1 billion. The cash influx strengthened Verizon’s industry-best dividend, which now yields 6.25% and absorbs only about 31% of free cash flow. Verizon also has a 20-year track record of dividend payout increases, making it the most shareholder-friendly of the major telecoms.
If Verizon’s report contained a red flag, it's that the record profitability and cash flow sit on declining revenue. Management expects revenue growth to pick up in the second half of the year, but this guidance projection is now the most crucial for any of the three major telecoms. A strong Q3 is needed to confirm which trajectory is real.
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